Boston University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 22.99 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.111 rating points from 27 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.31 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 8 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.30 (fleet 3.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 41–70 (37%) as crew 7–15 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 12–6 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 14–29 | 4–3 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–16 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 3–12 |
| Fall 2014 | 3 | 12–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (133 matches) the record is 48–85 against 45.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-17 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.53 | 3.74 | 12–6 | 8.1 | +1.21 | 3.4 | 3% |
| 2017-04-08 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.63 | 2.92 | 2–9 | 1.6 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2017-04-08 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | crew | 2.63 | 3.07 | 4–3 | 3.3 | +0.44 | 0.2 | 42% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 2.48 | 9–9 | 9.3 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2017-03-18 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 1.95 | 3–11 | 4.0 | −0.62 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 1.86 | 3–16 | 4.1 | −0.59 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | crew | 3.15 | 2.32 | 3–12 | 5.0 | −0.83 | 1.2 | 94% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.16 | 3.11 | 10–5 | 7.3 | +0.94 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.10 | 1.38 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 92% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 1.73 | 1.62 | 1–9 | 1.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.9 | 3.81 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 13 | 14.9 | 2.67 |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.1 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.5 | 2.19 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.6 | 3.01 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 4.78 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 11.0 | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 2.50 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 2.7 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 3.7 | 4.55 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 2.63 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 1.64 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.8 | 2.62 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 9.7 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 14 | 9.1 | — |
| Midweek Firefly Regatta April 20 | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | 3.35 |
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 4.54 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 16% | — |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 8 | 11.5 | 2.11 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 3.74 |
| Ross Trophy at Courageous Sailing Center Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 1.29 |
| Mystic Lake Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 2.47 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.0 | -0.89 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 2.40 |
| The Crews Regatta | Crew | A | 6 | 5.0 | — |
| Central Series6 | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | 3.66 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Crew | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.0 | 2.50 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.6 | 2.23 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.2 | 1.68 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.8 | 1.79 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 2.73 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Reed Lorimer |  Detroit Country Day School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
