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The Crews Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 15 22 37
2 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 32 11 43
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 29 18 47
4 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 36 20 56
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 30 33 63
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 18 56 74
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 34 44 78
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 45 46 91
9 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 39 53 92
10 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 56 49 105
11 Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 67 46 113
12 Falcons Falcons Falcons 73 74 147
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 15 Nathan Housberg '19
Anna Croley '19
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 3 BKD 1 1 7 3 18 Courtney Bergh '16
Alexandra Swanson '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 5 6 3 6 5 29 Julia Fuller '17
Russell Shapiro '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 9 9 3 5 3 1 30 Caroline Salas '18
Reed Lorimer '18
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 7 7 4 6 1 7 32 No Show
Kevin Wilkinson '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 6 1 8 7 8 4 34 Sophie Goemans '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Pavlina Karafillis '17 [3-4]
Pavlina Karafillis '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Sophie Goemans '17 [3-4]
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 1 6 10 4 9 6 36 John Zupkus '16
Mackenzie Davis '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 4 5 8 4 DNF 39 John Hughes '18
Donal Ryan '19
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 8 8 9 10 2 8 45 Ella Cedarholm '19
Nicole Plona '18
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 11 10 7 9 10 9 56 Dylan Quenneville '18
Jade Forsberg '17
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 12 12 11 11 11 10 67 No Show
Caroline Ziff '17
Falcons Falcons Falcons 10 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS 73
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 2 1 1 2 3 2 11 Samuel Cabrera '18
Mete Sayin '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 3 3 1 6 1 18 Sabina Van Mell '19
Pere Puig '19
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 6 2 4 4 1 3 20 William Whelan '18
Alison Siegmann '18
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 1 8 2 5 2 4 22 James Woodwell '18
Davis Tantillo '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 5 6 6 7 6 33 Andrew Reed '18
Solomon Tarlin '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 9 7 8 7 5 8 44 Noa Yoder '19
John Reyes '19
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 5 6 7 9 10 9 46 Daniel Lee '18
Morgan Tanski '19
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 8 4 10 8 11 5 46 No Show
Nicholas Kuehnle '18
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 12 10 5 3 9 10 49 Vick Xu '19 [1-2]
Nathaniel Wiener '18 [3-6]
Alexie Lessing '19 [1-2]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 9 11 11 4 11 53 Eleanor Grams '18
Caitlin Cloonan '18
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 10 12 9 10 8 7 56 Grace Gagnon '18
Lauren Haller '18
Falcons Falcons Falcons 11 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS 74
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
FalconsFalcons Falcons112233
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers223344
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1334455
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2445566
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds667788
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers778899
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers556677
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners88991010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1111121211
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies9910101111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos101011111212
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards12121122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
FalconsFalcons Falcons112233
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers223344
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1334455
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2445566
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds667788
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers778899
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers556677
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners88991010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1111121211
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies9910101111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos101011111212
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards12121122

Conditions — 11/08/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1025.2 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1025.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northeastern: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northeastern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at Northeastern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →