Brown University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 98.91 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.096 rating points from 143 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 (fleet 2.01) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–3 (67%) as crew 27–10 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–3 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 10–6 |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | — | 17–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 16–9 against 17.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 1.89 | 2.44 | 6–3 | 4.9 | +0.55 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 3.22 | 2.45 | 10–6 | 12.3 | −0.78 | 1.3 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Ice Breaker | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.8 | -2.24 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 2.5 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 3.06 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.0 | 1.39 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 17.0 | -0.68 |
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | 2.09 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.4 | 2.07 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | 3.30 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.0 | 2.17 |
| The Crews Regatta | Crew | A | 5 | 3.0 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Crew | A | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| Southern 7 on Salt Pond | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 0.77 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 2.4 | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Crew | B | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 5.0 | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 6.8 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.8 | — |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.9 | 2.25 |
| Professor No Ringer | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.0 | 1.23 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 10.5 | — |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 1.40 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 6.3 | — |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 7.3 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Crew | A | 9 | 4.3 | — |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 10.0 | — |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 6.6 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 7.2 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 5.9 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.5 | -0.43 |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.0 | 2.14 |
| Providence College Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 3.29 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Crew | A | 12 | 5.1 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.3 | 1.17 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | B | 1 | 14.0 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series Five | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.7 | 3.07 |
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | 1.22 |
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.3 | 1.26 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Crew | TR | 21 | 81% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Crew | A | 6 | 1.7 | — |
| PC Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 1.19 |
| Oberg | Crew | C | 14 | 11.6 | — |
| Professor NoRinger Invitational | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.1 | 1.45 |
| FJ Invitational Day 2 | Crew | B | 6 | 5.8 | — |
| Connecticut College Women's Invite Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 9.6 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
