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Ice Breaker

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 148
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 148
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 186
4 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 211
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 217
6 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 308
7 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 312
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 320
9 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 414 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears A 3 1 1 3 15 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 36 Gabriel Elstrodt '19 [1-13]
Julia Kim '18 [1-4, 9-13]
Davis Tantillo '19 [5-8]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 1 5 6 9 7 5 3 7 2 2 1 4 7 59 Sarah Hermus '18
Marisa Decollibus '17
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs B 7 12 2 2 2 1 8 5 7 5 4 3 6 64 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18
Charles Skoda '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 2 6 3 1 1 14 1 6 13 6 6 6 2 67 Christopher Keller '19
Taylor Hart '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 16 3 15 5 9 6 6 8 3 3 3 1 3 81 Jackson Mccoy '19
Lucy Robison '18
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs A 4 4 4 6 3 7 15 2 4 4 13 13 5 84 Eric Anderson '16 [1-13]
Amelia Dobronyi '17 [1-8]
Claire Rossi De Leon '19 [9-13]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers A 5 9 13 7 4 8 5 3 10 11 11 5 4 95 Ben Brown '18
Alden Cowap '17
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks A 6 2 7 4 6 11 11 4 11 7 8 11 11 99 Shannon Killian '16
Marykate Fallotico '17
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 B 12 7 5 15 8 4 4 11 5 9 5 10 9 104 Rebecca Quirke '17
Hannah King '19
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 A 10 8 8 8 5 2 9 10 6 8 7 9 17 107 Emilia Clementi '18
Elaina Lambright '19
Brown University Brown University Bears B 11 11 9 14 13 12 7 9 8 14 16 12 14 150 Alexandra Swanson '16 [1-8]
Henry Sharpe '17 [9-13]
Maxine De Havenon '19 [1-8]
Lauren Haller '18 [9-13]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 17 13 12 12 10 10 12 14 9 10 9 15 12 155 William Manning '18
Linnea Goldstein '16
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 9 10 16 11 11 13 18 15 12 13 10 7 13 158 Benton Croop '18 [1-8]
Kimberly Morecraft '18 [9-13]
Sam Rush '19 [1-8]
Ian Nannig '19 [9-13]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 15 16 10 13 12 16 13 16 14 12 12 8 8 165 Sofia Kirkman '20
Alexandra Nygren '20
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 A 8 15 18 17 16 9 14 13 15 16 14 14 10 199 MRP Albert Rodiger '18
Olivia Liebnick '16
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks B 14 14 17 18 17 17 16 17 17 15 15 16 16 209 Mara Terchunian '16
Mary Grace Bean '18
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 B 13 17 14 10 14 15 17 12 16 17 18 17 15 215 MRP Phillip Rosenthall '18
Victoria Slater '19
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers B 18 18 11 16 18 18 10 18 18 18 17 18 DNF 217 Alexander Baskin '19 [1-10]
Julia Silva '19 [11-13]
Erich Wu '19 [1-4, 9-13]
Julia Silva '19 [5-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1111111111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 12222222222222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 23333333333333
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers4444444444444
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies5555555555555
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams8888888888888
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks6666666666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos7777777777777
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs9999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears10101010101010101010101010
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 111111111111111111111111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 212121212121212121212121212
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers13131313131313131313131313
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies14141414141414141414141414
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams17171717171717171717171717
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks15151515151515151515151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos16161616161616161616161616
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs18181818181818181818181818

Conditions — 03/12/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1023.7 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 24.5 kn
From SSW (208°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1023.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Connecticut College: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →