Yale University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 87.34 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.093 rating points from 122 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 32–10 (76%) as crew 76–32 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 6 | — | 69–28 |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | — | 7–4 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 12–2 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 14–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (150 matches) the record is 108–42 against 100.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.45 | 2.53 | 10–7 | 12.8 | −0.92 | 1.9 | 97% |
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | crew | 3.24 | 3.20 | 11–7 | 11.2 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2018-04-07 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.36 | 3.82 | 15–3 | 13.7 | +0.46 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | crew | 3.30 | 3.89 | 17–6 | 14.3 | +0.60 | 1.1 | 16% |
| 2018-03-24 | Friis Team Race | crew | 3.29 | 6.29 | 4–0 | 3.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 42% |
| 2018-03-03 | Bob Bavier Team Race | crew | 3.32 | 3.15 | 12–5 | 12.5 | −0.18 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | crew | 3.15 | 1.08 | 3–3 | 5.3 | −2.07 | 3.9 | >99% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | crew | 3.08 | 4.52 | 4–1 | 2.7 | +1.44 | 1.2 | 22% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.11 | 3.98 | 12–2 | 10.3 | +0.87 | 1.0 | 22% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.92 | 3.02 | 6–4 | 5.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 1.98 | 3.61 | 14–4 | 8.3 | +1.63 | 6.4 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B, C | 4 | 8.8 | — |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 5.1 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 4.5 | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 12.1 | — |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 18 | 83% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 6.8 | — |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 24 | 75% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 22 | 64% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Crew | B | 5 | 8.8 | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Crew | B | 4 | 4.8 | — |
| Friis Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Crew | TR | 19 | 74% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 3.0 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A | 14 | 8.4 | — |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Crew | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay | Crew | A | 9 | 1.8 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | C | 3 | 5.0 | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 13 | 8.8 | — |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 4.3 | — |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 3.3 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.5 | 3.29 |
| Southern 5 | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.3 | 0.26 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.5 | 3.35 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | 3.62 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.9 | 3.80 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.0 | 2.74 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.9 | 3.60 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 3.20 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.3 | 3.97 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 8.5 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 8 | 4.0 | 4.21 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.2 | 3.94 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.1 | 3.00 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.3 | 2.61 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.7 | 3.21 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 4.13 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.0 | 3.17 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Ice Breaker | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.9 | 1.62 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 3.62 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.5 | 3.43 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.3 | 2.87 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.5 | 3.44 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.1 | 2.83 |
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.7 | 3.53 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.1 | 2.27 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.5 | 3.21 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.4 | 2.19 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.4 | 1.84 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.9 | 1.64 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 5.7 | 2.50 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.7 | 2.02 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 2.78 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 2.04 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.3 | 2.00 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 2.83 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.4 | 2.74 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 11.0 | 1.90 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
