Joseph R. Duplin Regatta

HostTufts
Date03/26/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–2
2	Brown University	Bears	6–4
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	6–4
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–4
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	3–4
6	Northeastern University	Huskies	3–4
7	Boston College	Eagles	2–5
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	0–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,654 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 34 matches (53%) with a log-loss of 0.660 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.29 ± 0.48: a typical event, more orderly than 20% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Dartmouth College Big Green	6	7.66	Sarah Williams / Sophie Kerr Margaret Kilvert / Mary Amis Emma White / Sophia Diserio	42%	8–2 (80%)	+3.8
2	Brown University Bears	4	8.18 school +0.31	Lindsey Baab / Jessica O'Dell 2.67 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick / Courtney Bergh 3.14 Alexandra Swanson / Maxine De Havenon 6–3 Sophie Hibben / Grace Gagnon 0–1	56%	6–4 (60%)	+0.4
3	Yale University Bulldogs	3	8.22 school +0.15	Marly Isler / Kira Woods 3.00 Katharina (Kb) Knapp / Emily Johnson 2.92 Claire Huebner / Caroline Colwell	58%	6–4 (60%)	+0.2
4	Tufts University Jumbos	2	8.31 school +0.18, home +0.20	Maryclaire Kiernan / Amanda Sommi 2.85 Kate Shaner / Julia Fuller 2.74 Molly Pleskus / Sabina Van Mell 2.19	59%	6–4 (60%)	+0.1
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1	8.74 school +0.28	Mary Paz / Martinique Ogle Courtney Koos / Sydney Avitia-Jacques 2.82 Erin Mullins / Olivia Diserio 2.88 2–4 Erin Mullins / Catherine Price 3.09 1–0	73%	3–4 (43%)	−2.1
6	Northeastern University Huskies	7	7.03 school +0.17	Sarah De Silva / Nathalie Garcia 2.10 Victoria Mcgruer / Laura Tschiegg 2.39 Elise Gehling / Coleen Ross	31%	3–4 (43%)	+0.8
7	Boston College Eagles	5	7.89 school +0.31	Caroline Downey / Grace Drury 1.92 Lily Mcgrath / Megan Bamford Isabella Loosbrock / Kyla Maclennan	51%	2–5 (29%)	−1.6
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	6.77 school −0.08	Megan Yeigh / Emma Janson 2.86 Lindsay Doyle / Victoria Pyne Mercier 2.35 Lilla Salvesen / Katherine Mooney 0–6 Samantha Brown / Lilla Salvesen 0–1	24%	0–7 (0%)	−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Dartmouth College	7.66	9.46	8–2	4.2	+1.80	4.6	1%
6	Northeastern University	7.03	7.58	3–4	2.2	+0.55	0.3	37%
2	Brown University	8.18	8.36	6–4	5.6	+0.18	0.1	53%
3	Yale University	8.22	8.33	6–4	5.8	+0.11	0.0	57%
4	Tufts University	8.31	8.34	6–4	5.9	+0.03	0.0	62%
7	Boston College	7.89	6.83	2–5	3.6	−1.06	1.2	95%
5	Bowdoin College	8.74	7.37	3–4	5.1	−1.38	2.2	99%
8	University of Vermont	6.77	3.77	0–7	1.7	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sarah Williams	Dartmouth College	2.97	4.77	8–2	4.2	+1.80	4.6	1%
Margaret Kilvert	Dartmouth College	1.91	3.71	8–2	4.2	+1.80	4.6	1%
Alexandra Swanson	Brown University	1.89	2.44	6–3	4.9	+0.55	0.4	34%
Sarah De Silva	Northeastern University	2.10	2.65	3–4	2.2	+0.55	0.3	37%
Victoria Mcgruer	Northeastern University	2.39	2.95	3–4	2.2	+0.55	0.3	37%
Elise Gehling	Northeastern University	2.02	2.57	3–4	2.2	+0.55	0.3	37%
Lindsey Baab	Brown University	2.67	2.85	6–4	5.6	+0.18	0.1	53%
Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick	Brown University	3.14	3.32	6–4	5.6	+0.18	0.1	53%
Marly Isler	Yale University	3.00	3.11	6–4	5.8	+0.11	0.0	57%
Katharina (Kb) Knapp	Yale University	2.92	3.02	6–4	5.8	+0.11	0.0	57%
Claire Huebner	Yale University	2.01	2.12	6–4	5.8	+0.11	0.0	57%
Maryclaire Kiernan	Tufts University	2.85	2.88	6–4	5.9	+0.03	0.0	62%
Kate Shaner	Tufts University	2.74	2.77	6–4	5.9	+0.03	0.0	62%
Isabella Loosbrock	Boston College	2.56	1.51	2–5	3.6	−1.06	1.2	95%
Erin Mullins	Bowdoin College	2.88	1.50	3–4	5.1	−1.38	2.2	99%
Mary Paz	Bowdoin College	2.58	1.20	3–4	5.1	−1.38	2.2	99%
Courtney Koos	Bowdoin College	2.82	1.44	3–4	5.1	−1.38	2.2	99%
Megan Yeigh	University of Vermont	2.86	-0.14	0–7	1.7	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%
Lindsay Doyle	University of Vermont	2.35	-0.65	0–7	1.7	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%
Lilla Salvesen	University of Vermont	1.40	-1.60	0–6	1.4	≤−3.00	2.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Northeastern University	60%
1	2	Yale University	Boston College	60%
1	3	Brown University	Tufts University	46%	upset
1	4	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	88%
1	5	Boston College	Tufts University	39%	upset
1	6	Brown University	Yale University	49%	upset
1	7	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	21%	upset
1	8	Yale University	Northeastern University	79%
1	9	Brown University	University of Vermont	81%
1	10	Dartmouth College	Boston College	41%	upset
1	11	Bowdoin College	Northeastern University	85%
1	12	Tufts University	University of Vermont	82%
1	13	Northeastern University	Boston College	30%	upset
1	14	Dartmouth College	Brown University	36%	upset
1	15	Tufts University	Yale University	52%
1	16	Brown University	Boston College	56%
1	17	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	39%	upset
1	18	Yale University	University of Vermont	80%
1	19	Brown University	Bowdoin College	36%	upset
1	20	Dartmouth College	Yale University	37%	upset
1	21	Northeastern University	University of Vermont	57%
1	22	Yale University	Bowdoin College	37%	upset
1	23	Boston College	University of Vermont	75%
1	24	Tufts University	Northeastern University	76%
1	25	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	70%
1	26	Northeastern University	Brown University	29%	upset
1	27	Bowdoin College	Boston College	71%
1	28	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	63%
1	29	Brown University	Tufts University	47%	upset
1	30	Dartmouth College	Yale University	40%	upset
1	31	Yale University	Brown University	50%
1	32	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	61%
1	33	Yale University	Tufts University	48%	upset
1	34	Dartmouth College	Brown University	41%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Green	Bears	Bulldogs	Jumbos	Bears	Huskies	Eagles	Catamounts
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–2	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–4	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–4	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–4	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	3–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
2	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
3	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
4	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
5	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
7	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
8	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
9	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
10	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
11	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
12	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
13	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
14	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
15	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
16	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
17	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
19	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
20	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
21	Huskies	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
22	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
23	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
24	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
25	Big Green	2-3-6	def.	Catamounts	1-4-5 DSQ
26	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
27	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
28	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
29	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
30	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
32	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
33	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
34	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Emma White '19 Margaret Kilvert '18 Sarah Williams '16	Sophia Diserio '18 Mary Amis '19 Sophie Kerr '17
Brown University	Bears	Alexandra Swanson '16 Lindsey Baab '18 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 Sophie Hibben '19	Maxine De Havenon '19 Jessica O'Dell '17 Courtney Bergh '16 Grace Gagnon '18
Yale University	Bulldogs	Claire Huebner '18 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 Marly Isler '16	Caroline Colwell '18 Emily Johnson '16 Kira Woods '19
Tufts University	Jumbos	Kate Shaner '16 Maryclaire Kiernan '17 Molly Pleskus '18	Julia Fuller '17 Amanda Sommi '16 Sabina Van Mell '19
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Courtney Koos '16 Erin Mullins '16 Mary Paz '17	Sydney Avitia-Jacques '18 Olivia Diserio '16 Catherine Price '18 Martinique Ogle '18
Northeastern University	Huskies	Elise Gehling '17 Sarah De Silva '19 Victoria Mcgruer '17	Coleen Ross '20 Nathalie Garcia '19 Laura Tschiegg '17
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Downey '19 Isabella Loosbrock '19 Lily Mcgrath '18	Grace Drury '18 Kyla Maclennan '18 Megan Bamford '18
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Lilla Salvesen '18 Lindsay Doyle '18 Megan Yeigh '16 Samantha Brown '19	Katherine Mooney '19 Victoria Pyne Mercier '19 Emma Janson '19 Lilla Salvesen '18

Conditions — 03/26/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1028.1 hPa

Temperature

41°F

↑ 44°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.5 kn

avg · max 9.8 kn

Gusts to 20.2 kn

From NE (55°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1028.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu