University of Vermont '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 77.61 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.118 rating points from 10 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.45 (fleet 3.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–35 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 8–10 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 3–18 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 8–17 against 7.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.86 | -0.14 | 0–7 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.6 | >99% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.65 | 3.22 | 8–10 | 6.0 | +0.57 | 0.8 | 20% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.5 | 3.44 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.5 | 3.54 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.3 | 3.76 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.1 | 3.08 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 2.81 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 3.02 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | 3.50 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 2.89 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.5 | 4.83 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.2 | 2.79 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.3 | 3.60 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.0 | 3.58 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 3.98 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.8 | 2.79 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.2 | 2.78 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.6 | 3.62 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.0 | 2.69 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.8 | 1.81 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 9.5 | 2.79 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.7 | 3.21 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.9 | 3.70 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.9 | 2.94 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.0 | 2.87 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.2 | 3.93 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.8 | 3.46 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.3 | 2.83 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.6 | 2.81 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 2.89 |
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.3 | 2.68 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.3 | 3.63 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.7 | 3.92 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.9 | 2.80 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.7 | 3.62 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.0 | 2.99 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.2 | 3.11 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.1 | 2.85 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 2.99 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 2.62 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 15.0 | 1.38 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.4 | 1.70 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.1 | 3.65 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.7 | 3.01 |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.6 | 1.98 |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.4 | 2.79 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.9 | 2.20 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.9 | 2.26 |
| Bowdoin Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.9 | 1.84 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 2.32 |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.4 | 2.71 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 14% | — |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.6 | 2.67 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.9 | 2.77 |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.3 | 2.10 |
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Crew | A | 10 | 6.2 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 3.05 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.4 | 2.28 |
| Gardner Island Invite SS3 | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 1.26 |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 15.3 | 1.50 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
