Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational

HostTufts
Date03/30/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbalaya	17–4
2	Brown University	Bears	17–4
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	15–6
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	13–8
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	8–13
6	Yale University	Bulldogs	7–14
7	Harvard University	Crimson	4–17
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	3–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 988 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 62 of 84 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.525 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbalaya	1	10.36 school +0.16, home +0.52	Duncan Swain / Julie Pringle 3.12 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Mackenzie Loy Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 2.98	80%	17–4 (81%)	+0.1
2	Brown University Bears	2	10.33 school +0.33	Drew Shea / Alexandra Swanson 2.74 Judge Ryan / Jessica O'Dell 3.33 Lucas Adams / Helen Lord 3.47	80%	17–4 (81%)	+0.2
3	Tufts University Jumbos	3	9.84 school +0.16, home +0.52	Charles Proctor / Madeline Luce 2.52 Willem Sandberg / Mara Porter 3.27 Ben Weigel / Hannah Duggan	72%	15–6 (71%)	−0.0
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	8.68 school −0.07	John Renehan / Abigail Rohman 2.65 Christopher Price / Charlotte Snow 3.05 Evan Read / Valentina Semenova 2.51	49%	13–8 (62%)	+2.8
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	8	6.60 school +0.10	Matthew Paige / Kyle Gershuny Cole Rice / Chelsea Maguire Ian Hollerbach / Elizabeth Teague	13%	8–13 (38%)	+5.3
6	Yale University Bulldogs	4	9.13 school +0.21	Max Nickbarg / Sarah Smith Emily Billing / Amanda Salvesen Marly Isler / Emily Johnson	57%	7–14 (33%)	−5.0
7	Harvard University Crimson	7	7.16 school −0.10	Marek Zaleski / Ashleigh Inglis Ben Lamont / Jacquelyn Cooley Ames Lyman / Catherine Philbin	21%	4–17 (19%)	−0.5
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	6	7.61 school −0.26	Nate Jermain / Catherine Mitchell 2.84 Adam Ceely / Maya Holzhauer 2.36 Megan Yeigh / Amanda Donohue	28%	3–18 (14%)	−3.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	6.60	8.41	8–13	2.7	+1.81	7.5	<1%
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	8.68	9.50	13–8	10.2	+0.83	1.7	10%
2	Brown University Bears	10.33	10.41	17–4	16.8	+0.08	0.0	58%
1	Tufts University Jumbalaya	10.36	10.41	17–4	16.9	+0.04	0.0	61%
3	Tufts University Jumbos	9.84	9.84	15–6	15.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
7	Harvard University Crimson	7.16	6.98	4–17	4.5	−0.18	0.1	72%
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	7.61	6.43	3–18	6.0	−1.18	2.4	98%
6	Yale University Bulldogs	9.13	7.63	7–14	12.0	−1.50	5.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Matthew Paige	Roger Williams University	2.06	3.86	8–13	2.7	+1.81	7.5	<1%
Cole Rice	Roger Williams University	1.96	3.76	8–13	2.7	+1.81	7.5	<1%
Ian Hollerbach	Roger Williams University	2.12	3.92	8–13	2.7	+1.81	7.5	<1%
John Renehan	Dartmouth College	2.65	3.47	13–8	10.2	+0.83	1.7	10%
Christopher Price	Dartmouth College	3.05	3.88	13–8	10.2	+0.83	1.7	10%
Evan Read	Dartmouth College	2.51	3.34	13–8	10.2	+0.83	1.7	10%
Drew Shea	Brown University	2.74	2.82	17–4	16.8	+0.08	0.0	58%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.47	3.55	17–4	16.8	+0.08	0.0	58%
Duncan Swain	Tufts University	3.12	3.17	17–4	16.9	+0.04	0.0	61%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	3.56	3.60	17–4	16.9	+0.04	0.0	61%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	2.98	3.02	17–4	16.9	+0.04	0.0	61%
Charles Proctor	Tufts University	2.52	2.51	15–6	15.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
Willem Sandberg	Tufts University	3.27	3.26	15–6	15.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
Ben Weigel	Tufts University	2.95	2.94	15–6	15.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.35	3.17	4–17	4.5	−0.18	0.1	72%
Ben Lamont	Harvard University	2.09	1.90	4–17	4.5	−0.18	0.1	72%
Ames Lyman	Harvard University	1.66	1.47	4–17	4.5	−0.18	0.1	72%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	2.84	1.66	3–18	6.0	−1.18	2.4	98%
Adam Ceely	University of Vermont	2.36	1.18	3–18	6.0	−1.18	2.4	98%
Megan Yeigh	University of Vermont	2.73	1.55	3–18	6.0	−1.18	2.4	98%
Max Nickbarg	Yale University	3.21	1.71	7–14	12.0	−1.50	5.3	>99%
Emily Billing	Yale University	3.34	1.84	7–14	12.0	−1.50	5.3	>99%
Marly Isler	Yale University	2.48	0.97	7–14	12.0	−1.50	5.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tufts University Jumbos	Harvard University Crimson	92%
1	2	Brown University Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	90%
1	3	Yale University Bulldogs	Roger Williams University Hawks	95%
1	4	University of Vermont Catamounts	Yale University Bulldogs	18%	upset
1	5	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	98%
1	6	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Dartmouth College Big Green	90%
1	7	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Brown University Bears	55%
1	8	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks	96%
1	9	Dartmouth College Big Green	Harvard University Crimson	78%
1	10	Tufts University Jumbos	Dartmouth College Big Green	77%
1	11	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Vermont Catamounts	24%	upset
1	12	Yale University Bulldogs	Harvard University Crimson	89%
1	13	Roger Williams University Hawks	Harvard University Crimson	36%	upset
1	14	Brown University Bears	Yale University Bulldogs	74%
1	15	Tufts University Jumbalaya	University of Vermont Catamounts	94%
1	16	Yale University Bulldogs	Tufts University Jumbalaya	23%	upset
1	17	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	63%
1	18	Dartmouth College Big Green	University of Vermont Catamounts	71%
1	19	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	89%
1	20	Roger Williams University Hawks	Dartmouth College Big Green	12%	upset
1	21	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson	96%
1	22	Brown University Bears	Dartmouth College Big Green	85%
1	23	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Harvard University Crimson	96%
1	24	Tufts University Jumbos	Yale University Bulldogs	66%
1	25	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Tufts University Jumbos	63%
1	26	Dartmouth College Big Green	Yale University Bulldogs	38%	upset
1	27	University of Vermont Catamounts	Harvard University Crimson	61%
1	28	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Roger Williams University Hawks	98%
2	29	Tufts University Jumbos	Harvard University Crimson	94%
2	30	Brown University Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	94%
2	31	Roger Williams University Hawks	Yale University Bulldogs	7%	upset
2	32	University of Vermont Catamounts	Yale University Bulldogs	18%	upset
2	33	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	98%
2	34	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Dartmouth College Big Green	84%
2	35	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Brown University Bears	50%	upset
2	36	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks	96%
2	37	Dartmouth College Big Green	Harvard University Crimson	82%
2	38	Tufts University Jumbos	Dartmouth College Big Green	76%
2	39	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Vermont Catamounts	28%	upset
2	40	Yale University Bulldogs	Harvard University Crimson	87%
2	41	Roger Williams University Hawks	Harvard University Crimson	37%	upset
2	42	Brown University Bears	Yale University Bulldogs	78%
2	43	Tufts University Jumbalaya	University of Vermont Catamounts	94%
2	44	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Yale University Bulldogs	78%
2	45	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	63%
2	46	Dartmouth College Big Green	University of Vermont Catamounts	76%
2	47	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	91%
2	48	Dartmouth College Big Green	Roger Williams University Hawks	89%
2	49	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson	96%
2	50	Dartmouth College Big Green	Brown University Bears	16%	upset
2	51	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Harvard University Crimson	96%
2	52	Tufts University Jumbos	Yale University Bulldogs	69%
2	53	Tufts University Jumbos	Tufts University Jumbalaya	39%	upset
2	54	Dartmouth College Big Green	Yale University Bulldogs	42%	upset
2	55	Harvard University Crimson	University of Vermont Catamounts	40%	upset
2	56	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Roger Williams University Hawks	98%
3	57	Tufts University Jumbos	Harvard University Crimson	94%
3	58	Brown University Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	94%
3	59	Yale University Bulldogs	Roger Williams University Hawks	92%
3	60	Yale University Bulldogs	University of Vermont Catamounts	82%
3	61	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	98%
3	62	Dartmouth College Big Green	Tufts University Jumbalaya	17%	upset
3	63	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Brown University Bears	48%	upset
3	64	Tufts University Jumbos	Roger Williams University Hawks	96%
3	65	Dartmouth College Big Green	Harvard University Crimson	83%
3	66	Dartmouth College Big Green	Tufts University Jumbos	24%	upset
3	67	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Vermont Catamounts	29%	upset
3	68	Harvard University Crimson	Yale University Bulldogs	13%	upset
3	69	Harvard University Crimson	Roger Williams University Hawks	62%
3	70	Brown University Bears	Yale University Bulldogs	79%
3	71	Tufts University Jumbalaya	University of Vermont Catamounts	94%
3	72	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Yale University Bulldogs	78%
3	73	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	62%
3	74	Dartmouth College Big Green	University of Vermont Catamounts	77%
3	75	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	91%
3	76	Dartmouth College Big Green	Roger Williams University Hawks	89%
3	77	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson	96%
3	78	Brown University Bears	Dartmouth College Big Green	84%
3	79	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Harvard University Crimson	96%
3	80	Tufts University Jumbos	Yale University Bulldogs	70%
3	81	Tufts University Jumbalaya	Tufts University Jumbos	60%
3	82	Yale University Bulldogs	Dartmouth College Big Green	57%
3	83	Harvard University Crimson	University of Vermont Catamounts	41%	upset
3	84	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbalaya	3%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Jumbalaya	Bears	Jumbos	Green	Hawks	Bulldogs	Crimson	Catamounts
Tufts University Jumbalaya	11–3	✕	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–1	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	11–3	✕	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L
Harvard University Crimson	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Jumbalaya	Bears	Jumbos	Green	Hawks	Bulldogs	Crimson	Catamounts
Tufts University Jumbalaya	12–2	✕	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	12–2	✕	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Harvard University Crimson	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Jumbalaya	Bears	Jumbos	Green	Hawks	Bulldogs	Crimson	Catamounts
Tufts University Jumbalaya	9–5	✕	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–1	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	9–5	✕	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–2	W	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–5	W	L	W	L	✕	L	L	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
2	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
3	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
4	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
5	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
6	Jumbalaya	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
7	Jumbalaya	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
8	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
9	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
10	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
11	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
12	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
13	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
14	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
15	Jumbalaya	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
16	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Jumbalaya	1-5-6
17	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
18	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
19	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
22	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
23	Jumbalaya	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
24	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
25	Jumbalaya	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
26	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
27	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
28	Jumbalaya	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
29	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
30	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
31	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
32	Catamounts	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
33	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
34	Jumbalaya	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
35	Jumbalaya	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
36	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
37	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
38	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
39	Hawks	3-4-6	def.	Catamounts	1-2-5 DSQ
40	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
41	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
42	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
43	Jumbalaya	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
44	Jumbalaya	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
45	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
46	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
47	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
48	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
49	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
50	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
51	Jumbalaya	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
52	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
53	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Jumbalaya	3-4-5
54	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
55	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
56	Jumbalaya	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
57	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
58	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
59	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
60	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
61	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
62	Big Green	1-5-6	def.	Jumbalaya	2-3-4 DSQ
63	Jumbalaya	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
64	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
65	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
66	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
67	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
68	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
69	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
70	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
71	Jumbalaya	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
72	Jumbalaya	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
73	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
74	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
75	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
76	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
77	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
78	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
79	Jumbalaya	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
80	Jumbos	3-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-2-6 DSQ
81	Jumbalaya	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
82	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
83	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
84	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbalaya	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbalaya	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Dan Nickerson '15 Duncan Swain '15	Mackenzie Loy '13 Jamie Maffeo '15 Julie Pringle '14
Brown University	Bears	Drew Shea '14 Judge Ryan '14 Lucas Adams '15	Alexandra Swanson '16 Jessica O'Dell '17 Helen Lord '14
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Weigel '14 Charles Proctor '14 Willem Sandberg '14	Hannah Duggan '15 Madeline Luce '13 Mara Porter '14
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Price '14 Evan Read '16 John Renehan '13	Charlotte Snow '15 Valentina Semenova '13 Abigail Rohman '16
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Cole Rice '15 Ian Hollerbach '14 Matthew Paige '13	Chelsea Maguire '13 Elizabeth Teague '13 Kyle Gershuny '15
Yale University	Bulldogs	Emily Billing '13 Marly Isler '16 Max Nickbarg '14	Amanda Salvesen '14 Emily Johnson '16 Sarah Smith '15
Harvard University	Crimson	Ames Lyman '14 Ben Lamont '14 Marek Zaleski '16	Catherine Philbin '14 Jacquelyn Cooley '14 Ashleigh Inglis '15
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Adam Ceely '15 Megan Yeigh '16 Nate Jermain '15	Maya Holzhauer '13 Amanda Donohue '13 Catherine Mitchell '14

Conditions — 03/30/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 44% · Pressure 1017.5 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.7 kn

avg · max 6.1 kn

Gusts to 15.4 kn

From NW (306°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1017.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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