Dartmouth College '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.16 (fleet 2.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 44–51 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 20–18 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 24–33 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 25–31 against 25.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 3.23 | 12–5 | 10.8 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.07 | 2.88 | 4–8 | 4.4 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.83 | 1.96 | 4–5 | 5.2 | −0.88 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 3.10 | 3.29 | 5–13 | 4.5 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.4 | 2.98 |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 2.94 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.7 | 2.70 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.1 | 3.27 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 10.6 | 2.49 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.6 | 2.74 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.6 | 3.15 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.2 | 3.36 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.1 | 2.56 |
| Friis & Marchiando Trophies | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.6 | 3.26 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.4 | 3.06 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.3 | 2.51 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.1 | 3.27 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.8 | 3.59 |
| Owen, Mosbacher&Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 3.47 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.0 | 3.34 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 1.97 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.6 | 2.61 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.7 | 3.06 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 2.66 |
| Admiral Alymer's Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.3 | 3.12 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.4 | 2.34 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 3.14 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 11.2 | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 2.65 |
| Boston College Invitational | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.1 | 2.22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
