2nd Barque Eagle Team Race

HostCoast Guard
Date03/29/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	14–3
2	Brown University	Bears	13–4
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	12–5
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	11–6
5	Yale University	Bulldogs	7–10
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	5–12
7	University of Vermont	Catamounts	4–13
8	Connecticut College	Camels	2–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,109 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 53 of 68 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.478 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.26: an orderly event, more orderly than 75% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbos	1	9.27 school +0.06	Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.10 Charles Proctor / Elizabeth Keys 2.87 Willem Sandberg / Mara Porter 3.21	76%	14–3 (82%)	+1.1
2	Brown University Bears	4	8.23 school +0.35	Johanna Kincaid / Nicole Quattrocchi 2.65 Timothy Harding / Olivia Lord 2.21 Nathan Allman / Ragna Eide 2.93	52%	13–4 (76%)	+4.1
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	8.70 school −0.32	Christopher Price / Sophie Kerr 2.85 Ian Storck / Madeleine Cooney 2.87 Charles Lalumiere / Mia Steck 3.23	63%	12–5 (71%)	+1.2
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	8.95 school +0.11	Stewart Draheim / James Bartlein 2.75 Abby Preston / Alexander Rudkin 2.65 J. Jacob / Sara Swanson 3.35 8–4 Connor Needham / Samantha Bobo 3.36 3–2	69%	11–6 (65%)	−0.7
5	Yale University Bulldogs	5	7.70 school +0.07	Eric Anderson / Sanam Rastegar Marly Isler / Emily Johnson 2.79 Joseph Kiss / Clara Robertson 2.59 6–6 Joseph Kiss / Isabelle Rossi De Leon 2.73 1–4	47%	7–10 (41%)	−0.9
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	7.33 school −0.27, home +0.36	Avery Fanning / Cyrus Unvala 3.16 Christina Frost / Robert Turley 2.36 Andrew Britton / Joshua Moan 1.63	39%	5–12 (29%)	−1.6
7	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	6.01 school −0.20	Oj O'Connell / Hali Chesher Frederick Finkenauer / Travis Bobley William Crary / Hannah Dragonas	14%	4–13 (24%)	+1.7
8	Connecticut College Camels	6	7.35 school +0.17	Alexander Giordano / Kim Bolick 2–13 Cooper Nefsky / Matthew Lau-Hansen 2–12 Liz Dubovik / Alix Israel 1–10 Ellis Tonissi / Alix Israel 1–5 Gabriel Salk / Cooper Nefsky 0–3 Ellis Tonissi / Kim Bolick 0–2	40%	2–15 (12%)	−4.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Brown University	8.23	9.52	13–4	8.9	+1.29	3.7	2%
7	University of Vermont	6.01	6.73	4–13	2.3	+0.72	0.9	18%
1	Tufts University	9.27	9.68	14–3	13.0	+0.41	0.3	39%
3	Dartmouth College	8.70	9.08	12–5	10.8	+0.38	0.3	35%
4	Roger Williams University	8.95	8.73	11–6	11.7	−0.22	0.1	76%
5	Yale University	7.70	7.42	7–10	7.9	−0.28	0.2	78%
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7.33	6.80	5–12	6.6	−0.53	0.6	88%
8	Connecticut College	7.35	5.42	2–15	6.8	−1.94	5.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Johanna Kincaid	Brown University	2.65	3.94	13–4	8.9	+1.29	3.7	2%
Timothy Harding	Brown University	2.21	3.50	13–4	8.9	+1.29	3.7	2%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	2.93	4.22	13–4	8.9	+1.29	3.7	2%
Oj O'Connell	University of Vermont	2.52	3.25	4–13	2.3	+0.72	0.9	18%
Frederick Finkenauer	University of Vermont	0.96	1.68	4–13	2.3	+0.72	0.9	18%
William Crary	University of Vermont	2.13	2.85	4–13	2.3	+0.72	0.9	18%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.10	3.51	14–3	13.0	+0.41	0.3	39%
Charles Proctor	Tufts University	2.87	3.28	14–3	13.0	+0.41	0.3	39%
Willem Sandberg	Tufts University	3.21	3.62	14–3	13.0	+0.41	0.3	39%
Christopher Price	Dartmouth College	2.85	3.23	12–5	10.8	+0.38	0.3	35%
Ian Storck	Dartmouth College	2.87	3.25	12–5	10.8	+0.38	0.3	35%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.23	3.62	12–5	10.8	+0.38	0.3	35%
Connor Needham	Roger Williams University	3.36	3.53	3–2	2.8	+0.17	0.0	62%
Abby Preston	Roger Williams University	2.65	2.43	11–6	11.7	−0.22	0.1	76%
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	2.59	2.31	7–10	7.9	−0.28	0.2	78%
Eric Anderson	Yale University	1.83	1.55	7–10	7.9	−0.28	0.2	78%
Marly Isler	Yale University	2.79	2.51	7–10	7.9	−0.28	0.2	78%
J. Jacob	Roger Williams University	3.35	2.95	8–4	8.9	−0.40	0.3	84%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.16	2.63	5–12	6.6	−0.53	0.6	88%
Christina Frost	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.36	1.84	5–12	6.6	−0.53	0.6	88%
Andrew Britton	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.63	1.10	5–12	6.6	−0.53	0.6	88%
Ellis Tonissi	Connecticut College	2.53	0.88	1–7	3.3	−1.65	2.4	99%
Cooper Nefsky	Connecticut College	1.91	0.23	2–12	5.4	−1.68	3.8	>99%
Alexander Giordano	Connecticut College	2.24	0.35	2–13	6.4	−1.89	5.4	>99%
Liz Dubovik	Connecticut College	2.35	0.08	1–10	3.9	−2.27	4.2	>99%
Gabriel Salk	Connecticut College	2.39	-0.61	0–3	1.4	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
1	2	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
1	3	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	22%	upset
1	4	Brown University	Yale University	70%
1	5	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
1	6	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	83%
1	7	Tufts University	Yale University	86%
1	8	Brown University	University of Vermont	93%
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	56%
1	10	Dartmouth College	Yale University	76%
1	11	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	96%
1	12	Brown University	Tufts University	25%	upset
1	13	Yale University	Connecticut College	54%
1	14	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	81%
1	15	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	64%
1	16	Brown University	Roger Williams University	33%	upset
1	17	Yale University	University of Vermont	85%
1	18	Tufts University	Connecticut College	89%
1	19	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	83%
1	20	Dartmouth College	Brown University	62%
1	21	Tufts University	University of Vermont	96%
1	22	Roger Williams University	Yale University	78%
1	23	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	82%
1	24	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
1	25	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	58%
1	26	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	94%
1	27	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Yale University	40%	upset
1	28	Brown University	Connecticut College	73%
2	29	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
2	30	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	87%
2	31	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	22%	upset
2	32	Brown University	Yale University	62%
2	33	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	64%
2	34	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	79%
2	35	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Yale University	40%	upset
2	36	Brown University	University of Vermont	90%
2	37	Tufts University	Connecticut College	87%
2	38	Dartmouth College	Yale University	72%
2	39	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	95%
2	40	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
2	41	Yale University	Connecticut College	53%
2	42	Tufts University	University of Vermont	96%
2	43	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
2	44	Roger Williams University	Brown University	67%
2	45	Yale University	University of Vermont	84%
2	46	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	51%
2	47	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	57%
2	48	Brown University	Dartmouth College	39%	upset
2	49	University of Vermont	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	24%	upset
2	50	Roger Williams University	Yale University	76%
2	51	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	79%
2	52	Tufts University	Brown University	73%
2	53	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	83%
2	54	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	93%
2	55	Tufts University	Yale University	81%
2	56	Brown University	Connecticut College	70%
2	57	Dartmouth College	Brown University	61%
2	58	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	43%	upset
2	59	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	56%
2	60	Brown University	Tufts University	27%	upset
2	61	Brown University	Roger Williams University	33%	upset
2	62	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	63%
2	63	Yale University	University of Vermont	84%
2	64	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	48%	upset
2	65	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	78%
2	66	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
2	67	Yale University	Connecticut College	52%
2	68	University of Vermont	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	25%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Bears	Green	Hawks	Bulldogs	Bears	Catamounts	Camels
Tufts University Jumbos	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Bears	Green	Hawks	Bulldogs	Bears	Catamounts	Camels
Tufts University Jumbos	8–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–3	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–4	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–3	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–8	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Connecticut College Camels	2–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
2	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
3	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
4	Bears	1-4-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-5 DSQ,DSQ,DSQ
5	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
6	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
7	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
8	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-4 RAF	def.	Camels	3-5-6
10	Big Green	2-5-6	def.	Bulldogs	1-3-4 DSQ
11	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
12	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
14	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
15	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
16	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
18	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
19	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
20	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
21	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
22	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
23	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
24	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6 DSQ
25	Jumbos	1-5-6	def.	Hawks	2-3-4 DSQ
26	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
28	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
29	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
30	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
31	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
32	Bears	3-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-2-6 DSQ
33	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6 DSQ
34	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
35	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
37	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
38	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
39	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
40	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
41	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
42	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
43	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
44	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
45	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
46	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
47	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
48	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
49	Catamounts	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
50	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
51	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
52	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
53	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
54	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
55	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
56	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
57	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
58	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
59	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
60	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
61	Bears	2-3-6	def.	Hawks	1-4-5 DSQ
62	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
63	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
64	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
65	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
66	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
67	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
68	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbos	Charles Proctor '14 Dan Nickerson '15 Willem Sandberg '14	Elizabeth Keys '14 Jamie Maffeo '15 Mara Porter '14
Brown University	Bears	Johanna Kincaid '15 Nathan Allman '16 Timothy Harding '15	Nicole Quattrocchi '15 Ragna Eide '16 Olivia Lord '17
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Christopher Price '14 Ian Storck '15	Mia Steck '17 Sophie Kerr '17 Madeleine Cooney '17
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Abby Preston '15 Connor Needham '14 J. Jacob '16 Stewart Draheim '16	Alexander Rudkin '14 Samantha Bobo '15 Sara Swanson '16 James Bartlein '15
Yale University	Bulldogs	Eric Anderson '16 Joseph Kiss '17 Marly Isler '16	Sanam Rastegar '16 Clara Robertson '17 Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17 Emily Johnson '16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Andrew Britton '16 Avery Fanning '16 Christina Frost '16	Joshua Moan '15 Cyrus Unvala '14 Robert Turley '16
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Frederick Finkenauer '17 Oj O'Connell '15 William Crary '17	Travis Bobley '17 Hali Chesher '17 Hannah Dragonas '17
Connecticut College	Camels	Alexander Giordano '15 Cooper Nefsky '17 Ellis Tonissi '15 Gabriel Salk '14 Liz Dubovik '15	Kim Bolick '15 Matthew Lau-Hansen '17 Alix Israel '15 Cooper Nefsky '17

Conditions — 03/29/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 94% · Pressure 1021.6 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 49°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 9.7 kn

Gusts to 19.8 kn

From ENE (58°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine3.1 hrs Humidity94% Pressure1021.6 hPa Rain0.28 in

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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