University of Vermont '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.83 (fleet 1.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–13 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 4–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 4–13 against 2.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 0.96 | 1.68 | 4–13 | 2.3 | +0.72 | 0.9 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA J70 Two-Day Invite Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 3.3 | — |
| Coast Guard J70 Invitational Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 4.2 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| 74th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 6.1 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 6.8 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.0 | 3.57 |
| Southern 5 | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.3 | -0.60 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 5.2 | — |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.4 | 0.14 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 24% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.9 | 0.70 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
