Brown University '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 85.37 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 31 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 38–23 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 11–7 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 13–4 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 14–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (35 matches) the record is 24–11 against 22.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 3.32 | 2.52 | 11–7 | 13.7 | −0.79 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.65 | 3.94 | 13–4 | 8.9 | +1.29 | 3.7 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.2 | 3.27 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.8 | 2.73 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.3 | 3.40 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.7 | 3.43 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 4.8 | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.3 | 3.71 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.7 | 3.19 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.9 | 3.11 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.0 | 2.90 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 12.7 | 0.32 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.1 | 2.28 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.2 | 2.37 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.3 | 3.14 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.0 | 3.25 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.6 | 2.94 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 3.05 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 14.5 | 1.90 |
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.2 | 2.92 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.2 | 2.81 |
| Icebreaker Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.0 | 4.73 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.8 | 2.92 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.2 | 2.49 |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.0 | 1.86 |
| Southern Series 3 | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.7 | 1.54 |
| Southern 7 | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.3 | 2.68 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.3 | 2.53 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.6 | 2.73 |
| Crews Regatta 2013 | Crew | A | 6 | 2.3 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.4 | 1.96 |
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.2 | 3.39 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.7 | 2.74 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.0 | 1.89 |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.1 | 2.01 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.6 | 2.44 |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.8 | 2.46 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | 2.04 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.4 | 2.10 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.2 | 2.85 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.6 | 2.89 |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.2 | 2.12 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.6 | 2.14 |
| Crew's Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 3.0 | — |
| Connecticut College Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.1 | 2.43 |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.1 | 2.07 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 8.7 | 1.65 |
| Southern Series 5 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.0 | 2.07 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 2.28 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 20 | 9.2 | 2.48 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.0 | 2.16 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.9 | 2.09 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.1 | 1.73 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 2.22 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.0 | 2.57 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 2.18 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.8 | 0.39 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
