RI State Champs @ SRU

HostSalve Regina
Date11/05/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	66	58	124
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams	81	57	138
3	Brown University	Bears	41	107	148
4	University of Vermont	Catamounts	68	84	152
5	Boston University	Terriers	85	73	158
6	Connecticut College	Camels	91	77	168
7	Providence College	Friars	85	90	175
8	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	84	96	180
9	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	103	84	187
10	Tufts University	Jumbos	82	108	190
11	Northeastern University	Huskies	121	91	212
12	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	82	154	236
13	Roger Williams University	Hawks	126	134	260
14	Wesleyan University	Cardinals	173	115	288
15	Middlebury College	Panthers	172	166	338
16	University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	179	201	380
17	University of Connecticut	Huskies	203	187	390
18	Mitchell College	Mariners	219	183	402
19	Amherst College	Lord Jeffs	252	252	504
20	Bates College	Bobcats	252	252	504

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Brown University	Bears	1	10	3	1	3	4	6	2	1	1	3	6	41	Emily Dellenbaugh '12 [1-12] Margot Elmaleh '12 [1-8] Logan Shanney '13 [9-12]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	2	1	8	4	12	9	5	6	6	2	2	9	66	Bradley Milliken '14 [1-12] Matthew Stroebel '12 [1-2] Kristen Holloway '12 [3-12]
University of Vermont	Catamounts	6	11	5	12	1	3	2	5	4	7	4	8	68	Mackenzie Spencer '12 Trudy Crowley '13
University of Rhode Island	Rams	7	8	12	8	2	12	11	9	2	4	1	5	81	James Simmons '13 [1-12] Margaret Craig '13 [1-10] George Saggal '13 [11-12]
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	4	4	2	3	13	11	14	8	7	8	6	2	82	Blake Burgess '15 Nicholas Cabral '15
Tufts University	Jumbos	5	12	4	2	11	6	7	7	5	6	5	12	82	Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12 [1-12] Amelia Quinn '13 [1-8] Alyson Yee '12 [9-12]
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	11	7	6	7	14	1	1	3	10	9	8	7	84	Peter Pellegrini '12 [1-12] Christopher Jensen '14 [1-2, 11-12] Jennifer Poole '14 [3-4] Mary Clawson '15 [5-8] Sarah Muzyka '12 [9-10]
Boston University	Terriers	3	6	9	6	4	5	4	1	8	12	13	14	85	Matt Johnson '12 [1-12] Joseph Ballow '13 [1-2] Lalitha Kumaresan '13 [3-12]
Providence College	Friars	8	3	1	5	7	8	13	14	12	3	10	1	85	Ian Sutherland '12 Alexandra Zweig '13
Connecticut College	Camels	12	2	15	10	8	13	3	4	3	10	7	4	91	Elizabeth Whipple '12 [1-8] Ig Schottlaender '14 [9-12] Sarah Price '14 [1-4] Kathryn St. George '12 [5-6] Kim Bolick '15 [7-8] Claire Sacco '13 [9-12]
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	16	5	10	9	6	2	8	10	11	5	11	10	103	Jeff Goodrich '12 [1-8] Peter Edmunds '14 [9-12] Clare-Elizabeth Henry '12 [1-8] Mae Speight '13 [9-12]
Northeastern University	Huskies	10	9	7	17	9	7	12	12	9	14	12	3	121	Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14 Estelle Beguin '14
Roger Williams University	Hawks	9	13	11	11	5	10	10	11	13	13	9	11	126	Eric Schwarm '13 [1-12] Megan Carlson '12 [1-8] Megan Place '13 [9-12]
Middlebury College	Panthers	15	15	13	13	10	15	15	15	17	11	16	17	172	Sean Willerford '14 Terry Duncan '15
Wesleyan University	Cardinals	13	14	16	14	15	16	9	18	15	15	15	13	173	Angus Page '12 Marika Soltys '??
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	14	16	14	15	16	14	18	13	14	16	14	15	179	Justin Marks '14 Jared Rodriguez '13
University of Connecticut	Huskies	DNF	17	17	16	17	17	16	16	16	17	17	16	203	William Kresic '13 Timothy Donahoe '15
Mitchell College	Mariners	17	DNF	18	18	18	18	17	17	18	18	DSQ	18	219	Brendan Griffiths '14 [1-12] Alexandra Bollela '?? [1-2, 7-10] Jared Lafosse-Baker '14 [3-6, 11-12]
Amherst College	Lord Jeffs	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	252	Keaton Burns '12 Eliza Ali '16
Bates College	Bobcats	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	252	Hunter Archibald '12 Nick Sneath '13

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
University of Rhode Island	Rams	4	5	7	10	11	6	1	5	1	2	4	1	57	Chanel Miller '14 [1-12] George Saggal '13 [1-2] Danielle Arpino '15 [3-12]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	7	4	1	11	2	9	5	7	2	3	5	2	58	William Howard '14 [1-12] Kristen Holloway '12 [1-2] Jaimie Chicoine '14 [3-10] Lauren Cefali '15 [11-12]
Boston University	Terriers	3	8	6	1	12	8	3	2	6	11	6	7	73	Michael Saldi '15 [1-12] Lalitha Kumaresan '13 [1-2] Joseph Ballow '13 [3-12]
Connecticut College	Camels	12	7	5	3	3	2	9	4	7	14	7	4	77	Gabriel Salk '14 [1-12] David Rex '14 [1-4] Lindsey Press '14 [5-8] Kathryn St. George '12 [9-12]
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	1	1	9	2	DSQ	5	13	11	5	12	1	3	84	Kaylee Schwitzer '15 Ayaka Okawa '14
University of Vermont	Catamounts	2	6	4	6	6	12	7	6	16	4	2	13	84	Kimberly Kaull '13 Erin Pierce '12
Providence College	Friars	10	15	2	9	1	14	6	1	13	10	3	6	90	Mike Bloomstine '13 [1-12] Caroline Doyle '13 [1-6] Joanne Bothwell '13 [7-12]
Northeastern University	Huskies	13	9	3	8	10	3	2	3	12	7	12	9	91	Conor Lodge '14 Tasha Greenwood '15
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	11	12	8	4	7	1	10	9	9	5	8	12	96	Kyle Carney '13 [1-4, 9-10] Robert Lippincott '14 [5-8, 11-12] Mary Zeolla '13 [1-4, 9-10] Genevieve Marquardt '15 [5-8] Austin Schwarz '13 [11-12]
Brown University	Bears	9	11	14	7	9	7	8	8	8	6	10	10	107	Johanna Kincaid '15 [1-12] Kristin Altreuter '14 [1-6] Lydia Whiteford '15 [7-12]
Tufts University	Jumbos	15	2	10	5	5	11	11	12	11	1	14	11	108	Andrew Meleny '13 [1-12] Sara Makaretz '14 [1-6] Barbara Murray '14 [7-12]
Wesleyan University	Cardinals	5	13	12	13	8	4	4	14	4	15	9	14	115	John Mcglynn '13 Rebecca Vaadia '13
Roger Williams University	Hawks	8	3	13	16	14	15	12	13	10	9	13	8	134	Ian Hollerbach '14 Kyle Gershuny '15
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	17	17	17	17	17	18	14	10	3	8	11	5	154	Andrew Mchenry '13 Kyle Robbins '13
Middlebury College	Panthers	6	14	11	15	13	13	15	16	15	18	15	15	166	Nicholas Dragone '14 Emily Cordner '13
Mitchell College	Mariners	14	18	16	18	16	10	16	15	14	13	17	16	183	Alex Hering '13 [1-12] Deborah Lee '15 [1-6] Chelsea Abbenante '14 [7-12]
University of Connecticut	Huskies	16	10	18	12	4	16	DNS	DNS	18	17	16	18	187	Michael Rottier '15 Jemma O'Donnell '15
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	18	16	15	14	15	17	17	DNF	17	16	18	17	201	Will Humphrey '14 Kayla Wagner '15
Amherst College	Lord Jeffs	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	252	Alex Dion '15 Alex Dion '15
Bates College	Bobcats	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	252	Liana Blum '12 Ellie Hallett '13

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Amherst College Lord Jeffs	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Bates College Bobcats	2	2	20	20	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12
Boston University Terriers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Brown University Bears	4	4	2	2	20	20	18	18	16	16	14	14
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
University of Connecticut Huskies	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6
Connecticut College Camels	6	6	4	4	2	2	20	20	18	18	16	16
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	20	20
Middlebury College Panthers	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Mitchell College Mariners	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	20	20	18	18
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Northeastern University Huskies	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1
Providence College Friars	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2
University of Rhode Island Rams	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8
Roger Williams University Hawks	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3
Salve Regina University Seahawks	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4
Tufts University Jumbos	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5
University of Vermont Catamounts	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Wesleyan University Cardinals	20	20	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Amherst College Lord Jeffs	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Bates College Bobcats	1	1	19	19	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11
Boston University Terriers	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Brown University Bears	3	3	1	1	19	19	17	17	15	15	13	13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
University of Connecticut Huskies	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5
Connecticut College Camels	5	5	3	3	1	1	19	19	17	17	15	15
Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	19	19
Middlebury College Panthers	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Mitchell College Mariners	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	19	19	17	17
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Northeastern University Huskies	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2
Providence College Friars	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1
University of Rhode Island Rams	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7
Roger Williams University Hawks	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4
Salve Regina University Seahawks	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6
University of Vermont Catamounts	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Wesleyan University Cardinals	19	19	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Amherst College	Keaton Burns '12	Eliza Ali '16
Lord Jeffs	Alex Dion '15	Alex Dion '15
Bates College	Hunter Archibald '12	Nick Sneath '13
Bobcats	Liana Blum '12	Ellie Hallett '13
Boston University	Matt Johnson '12 [1-12]	Joseph Ballow '13 [1-2] Lalitha Kumaresan '13 [3-12]
Terriers	Michael Saldi '15 [1-12]	Lalitha Kumaresan '13 [1-2] Joseph Ballow '13 [3-12]
Bowdoin College	Jeff Goodrich '12 [1-8] Peter Edmunds '14 [9-12]	Clare-Elizabeth Henry '12 [1-8] Mae Speight '13 [9-12]
Polar Bears	Kaylee Schwitzer '15	Ayaka Okawa '14
Brown University	Emily Dellenbaugh '12 [1-12]	Margot Elmaleh '12 [1-8] Logan Shanney '13 [9-12]
Bears	Johanna Kincaid '15 [1-12]	Kristin Altreuter '14 [1-6] Lydia Whiteford '15 [7-12]
Connecticut College	Elizabeth Whipple '12 [1-8] Ig Schottlaender '14 [9-12]	Sarah Price '14 [1-4] Kathryn St. George '12 [5-6] Kim Bolick '15 [7-8] Claire Sacco '13 [9-12]
Camels	Gabriel Salk '14 [1-12]	David Rex '14 [1-4] Lindsey Press '14 [5-8] Kathryn St. George '12 [9-12]
Maine Maritime Academy	Blake Burgess '15	Nicholas Cabral '15
Mariners	Andrew Mchenry '13	Kyle Robbins '13
Middlebury College	Sean Willerford '14	Terry Duncan '15
Panthers	Nicholas Dragone '14	Emily Cordner '13
Mitchell College	Brendan Griffiths '14 [1-12]	Alexandra Bollela '?? [1-2, 7-10] Jared Lafosse-Baker '14 [3-6, 11-12]
Mariners	Alex Hering '13 [1-12]	Deborah Lee '15 [1-6] Chelsea Abbenante '14 [7-12]
Northeastern University	Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14	Estelle Beguin '14
Huskies	Conor Lodge '14	Tasha Greenwood '15
Providence College	Ian Sutherland '12	Alexandra Zweig '13
Friars	Mike Bloomstine '13 [1-12]	Caroline Doyle '13 [1-6] Joanne Bothwell '13 [7-12]
Roger Williams University	Eric Schwarm '13 [1-12]	Megan Carlson '12 [1-8] Megan Place '13 [9-12]
Hawks	Ian Hollerbach '14	Kyle Gershuny '15
Salve Regina University	Peter Pellegrini '12 [1-12]	Christopher Jensen '14 [1-2, 11-12] Jennifer Poole '14 [3-4] Mary Clawson '15 [5-8] Sarah Muzyka '12 [9-10]
Seahawks	Kyle Carney '13 [1-4, 9-10] Robert Lippincott '14 [5-8, 11-12]	Mary Zeolla '13 [1-4, 9-10] Genevieve Marquardt '15 [5-8] Austin Schwarz '13 [11-12]
Tufts University	Nicolas Russo-Larsson '12 [1-12]	Amelia Quinn '13 [1-8] Alyson Yee '12 [9-12]
Jumbos	Andrew Meleny '13 [1-12]	Sara Makaretz '14 [1-6] Barbara Murray '14 [7-12]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bradley Milliken '14 [1-12]	Matthew Stroebel '12 [1-2] Kristen Holloway '12 [3-12]
Bears	William Howard '14 [1-12]	Kristen Holloway '12 [1-2] Jaimie Chicoine '14 [3-10] Lauren Cefali '15 [11-12]
University of Connecticut	William Kresic '13	Timothy Donahoe '15
Huskies	Michael Rottier '15	Jemma O'Donnell '15
University of New Hampshire	Justin Marks '14	Jared Rodriguez '13
Wildcats	Will Humphrey '14	Kayla Wagner '15
University of Rhode Island	James Simmons '13 [1-12]	Margaret Craig '13 [1-10] George Saggal '13 [11-12]
Rams	Chanel Miller '14 [1-12]	George Saggal '13 [1-2] Danielle Arpino '15 [3-12]
University of Vermont	Mackenzie Spencer '12	Trudy Crowley '13
Catamounts	Kimberly Kaull '13	Erin Pierce '12
Wesleyan University	Angus Page '12	Marika Soltys '??
Cardinals	John Mcglynn '13	Rebecca Vaadia '13

Conditions — 11/05/2011 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1030.3 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.9 kn

avg · max 10.0 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From NNE (15°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1030.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn · SW 12 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Salve Regina: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Salve Regina by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (43 labelled days at Salve Regina).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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