University of Rhode Island '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.92 (fleet 2.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–21 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 22–21 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 5–7 against 6.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.76 | 2.22 | 5–7 | 6.1 | −0.54 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 12 | 15.9 | 1.90 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 41% | — |
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.8 | 2.50 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.3 | 3.09 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.5 | 2.94 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.9 | 3.11 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.0 | 2.06 |
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 3.00 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.6 | 3.45 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.2 | 2.13 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 3.35 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.9 | 2.42 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 3.22 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 17 | 12.7 | 1.86 |
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.0 | 4.21 |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.0 | 2.53 |
| ICSA Coed Dinghy Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.0 | 1.93 |
| Charleston Spring Intersectional | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.3 | 1.75 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 6.8 | 3.08 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 2.66 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.8 | 2.91 |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.1 | 2.56 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.9 | 2.03 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 3.40 |
| 70th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.0 | 2.37 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.4 | 3.67 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 3.42 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy- Greater Boston | Skipper | C | 12 | 7.4 | 2.37 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
