Thames River Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/02/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Connecticut College	Camels	13–1
2	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	10–4
2	Boston University	Terriers	10–4
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams	10–4
5	Brown University	Bears	6–8
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	4–10
7	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	3–11
8	University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 133 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 56 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.423 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Connecticut College Camels	1	13.66 school +0.36, home +-0.34	Peter Miller / Stephanie Kapinos Kevin Martland / Grace Medley 4.07 Jordan Bothwick / Marina Sachs 3.10	93%	13–1 (93%)	+0.0
2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	11.35	Michael Croteau / Charlotte Williamson Tom Peabody / Ayaka Okawa Lizzy Hamilton / Isabel Low	54%	10–4 (71%)	+2.5
2	Boston University Terriers	3	12.28	Ian Towill / Lalitha Kumaresan Cameron Fraser / Alejandra Higgins Ryan Astwood / Margaret Swanson	63%	10–4 (71%)	+1.2
2	University of Rhode Island Rams	4	12.10	Samuel Cushing / Margaret Craig Alex Whipple / Danielle Arpino James Simmons / Kaitlyn Norton	55%	10–4 (71%)	+2.4
5	Brown University Bears	5	11.71 school +0.13	Lucas Adams / Helen Lord Timothy Harding / Nicole Quattrocchi Johanna Kincaid / Lydia Whiteford	54%	6–8 (43%)	−1.6
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2	12.14	Avery Fanning / Jaimie Chicoine Bradley Milliken / Robert Turley Dylan Finneran / Joshua Moan	65%	4–10 (29%)	−5.2
7	Salve Regina University Seahawks	7	8.52	Kyle Carney / Angelina Todaro Genevieve Marquardt / Kathryn Travers Mary Clawson / Shannon Killian	14%	3–11 (21%)	+1.0
8	University of New Hampshire Wildcats	8	4.65	William Dykes / David Mazotas Ann Sager / Emily Peabody Zachary Karakouzian / Amelia Connell	2%	0–14 (0%)	−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Salve Regina University	8.52	9.99	3–11	2.0	+1.47	1.2	19%
2	Bowdoin College	11.35	12.52	10–4	7.5	+1.17	2.1	9%
2	University of Rhode Island	12.10	13.22	10–4	7.6	+1.11	1.9	10%
2	Boston University	12.28	12.85	10–4	8.8	+0.57	0.5	32%
1	Connecticut College	13.66	13.68	13–1	13.0	+0.02	0.0	73%
5	Brown University	11.71	10.89	6–8	7.6	−0.82	0.9	93%
8	University of New Hampshire	4.65	1.65	0–14	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	12.14	9.11	4–10	9.1	−3.03	9.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kyle Carney	Salve Regina University	3.56	5.03	3–11	2.0	+1.47	1.2	19%
Genevieve Marquardt	Salve Regina University	1.40	2.87	3–11	2.0	+1.47	1.2	19%
Mary Clawson	Salve Regina University	1.01	2.48	3–11	2.0	+1.47	1.2	19%
Michael Croteau	Bowdoin College	3.30	4.47	10–4	7.5	+1.17	2.1	9%
Tom Peabody	Bowdoin College	2.87	4.04	10–4	7.5	+1.17	2.1	9%
Lizzy Hamilton	Bowdoin College	2.63	3.80	10–4	7.5	+1.17	2.1	9%
Samuel Cushing	University of Rhode Island	2.79	3.91	10–4	7.6	+1.11	1.9	10%
Alex Whipple	University of Rhode Island	3.42	4.54	10–4	7.6	+1.11	1.9	10%
James Simmons	University of Rhode Island	3.33	4.45	10–4	7.6	+1.11	1.9	10%
Ian Towill	Boston University	2.89	3.47	10–4	8.8	+0.57	0.5	32%
Cameron Fraser	Boston University	3.28	3.85	10–4	8.8	+0.57	0.5	32%
Ryan Astwood	Boston University	3.56	4.13	10–4	8.8	+0.57	0.5	32%
Peter Miller	Connecticut College	4.70	4.72	13–1	13.0	+0.02	0.0	73%
Kevin Martland	Connecticut College	4.07	4.09	13–1	13.0	+0.02	0.0	73%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	3.10	3.11	13–1	13.0	+0.02	0.0	73%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	4.05	3.24	6–8	7.6	−0.82	0.9	93%
Timothy Harding	Brown University	2.14	1.32	6–8	7.6	−0.82	0.9	93%
Johanna Kincaid	Brown University	2.83	2.01	6–8	7.6	−0.82	0.9	93%
William Dykes	University of New Hampshire	0.95	-2.05	0–14	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%
Ann Sager	University of New Hampshire	0.95	-2.05	0–14	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%
Zachary Karakouzian	University of New Hampshire	0.20	-2.80	0–14	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.50	0.47	4–10	9.1	−3.03	9.7	>99%
Bradley Milliken	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.21	0.17	4–10	9.1	−3.03	9.7	>99%
Dylan Finneran	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.88	-0.15	4–10	9.1	−3.03	9.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	University of New Hampshire	100%
1	2	Bowdoin College	University of New Hampshire	100%
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of New Hampshire	100%
1	4	Brown University	University of New Hampshire	99%
1	5	Boston University	University of New Hampshire	100%
1	6	Salve Regina University	University of New Hampshire	79%
1	7	University of Rhode Island	University of New Hampshire	99%
1	8	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	94%
1	9	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	91%
1	10	Connecticut College	Brown University	96%
1	11	Connecticut College	Boston University	94%
1	12	Connecticut College	Salve Regina University	100%
1	13	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	14	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	31%	upset
1	15	Bowdoin College	Brown University	51%
1	16	Boston University	Bowdoin College	55%
1	17	Bowdoin College	Salve Regina University	98%
1	18	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	39%	upset
1	19	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	39%	upset
1	20	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	46%	upset
1	21	Salve Regina University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1%	upset
1	22	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	30%	upset
1	23	Boston University	Brown University	64%
1	24	Brown University	Salve Regina University	97%
1	25	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	48%	upset
1	26	Boston University	Salve Regina University	98%
1	27	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	60%
1	28	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	97%
2	29	Connecticut College	University of New Hampshire	100%
2	30	Bowdoin College	University of New Hampshire	100%
2	31	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of New Hampshire	100%
2	32	Brown University	University of New Hampshire	100%
2	33	Boston University	University of New Hampshire	100%
2	34	Salve Regina University	University of New Hampshire	96%
2	35	University of Rhode Island	University of New Hampshire	100%
2	36	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	89%
2	37	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
2	38	Brown University	Connecticut College	12%	upset
2	39	Connecticut College	Boston University	82%
2	40	Connecticut College	Salve Regina University	100%
2	41	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	87%
2	42	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	31%	upset
2	43	Bowdoin College	Brown University	45%	upset
2	44	Bowdoin College	Boston University	34%	upset
2	45	Bowdoin College	Salve Regina University	96%
2	46	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	43%	upset
2	47	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	61%
2	48	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	50%
2	49	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Salve Regina University	98%
2	50	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	41%	upset
2	51	Boston University	Brown University	64%
2	52	Brown University	Salve Regina University	96%
2	53	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	54%
2	54	Boston University	Salve Regina University	98%
2	55	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	43%	upset
2	56	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	97%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Camels	Bears	Terriers	Rams	Bears	Bears	Seahawks	Wildcats
Connecticut College Camels	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Camels	Bears	Terriers	Rams	Bears	Bears	Seahawks	Wildcats
Connecticut College Camels	6–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	3–4	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of New Hampshire Wildcats	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
2	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Wildcats	2-5-6
3	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Wildcats	2-4-6
4	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
5	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
6	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
7	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
8	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
9	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
10	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
11	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
12	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
13	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
14	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
15	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
16	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
17	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
18	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
19	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
20	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
21	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
22	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
23	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
24	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
25	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
26	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
27	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
28	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
29	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
30	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
31	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Wildcats	2-4-6
32	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
33	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
34	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
35	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
36	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
37	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
38	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
39	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
40	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
41	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
42	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
43	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
44	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
45	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
46	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
47	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
48	Terriers	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
49	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
50	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
51	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
52	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
53	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
54	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
55	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
56	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Connecticut College	Camels	Jordan Bothwick '15 Kevin Martland '14 Peter Miller '13	Marina Sachs '15 Grace Medley '15 Stephanie Kapinos '13
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Lizzy Hamilton '15 Michael Croteau '15 Tom Peabody '14	Isabel Low '13 Charlotte Williamson '15 Ayaka Okawa '14
Boston University	Terriers	Cameron Fraser '14 Ian Towill '14 Ryan Astwood '16	Alejandra Higgins '13 Lalitha Kumaresan '13 Margaret Swanson '16
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Alex Whipple '15 James Simmons '13 Samuel Cushing '15	Danielle Arpino '15 Kaitlyn Norton '15 Margaret Craig '13
Brown University	Bears	Johanna Kincaid '15 Lucas Adams '15 Timothy Harding '15	Lydia Whiteford '15 Helen Lord '14 Nicole Quattrocchi '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Avery Fanning '16 Bradley Milliken '14 Dylan Finneran '15	Jaimie Chicoine '14 Robert Turley '16 Joshua Moan '15
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	Genevieve Marquardt '15 Kyle Carney '13 Mary Clawson '15	Kathryn Travers '16 Angelina Todaro '16 Shannon Killian '16
University of New Hampshire	Wildcats	Ann Sager '13 William Dykes '15 Zachary Karakouzian '16	Emily Peabody '16 David Mazotas '16 Amelia Connell '16

Conditions — 03/02/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1005.4 hPa

Temperature

37°F

↑ 41°F ↓ 30°F

Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.6 kn

avg · max 7.7 kn

Gusts to 19.4 kn

From NW (313°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1005.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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