Connecticut College '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.83 (fleet 3.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 66–62 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 27–36 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 22–15 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 7–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (77 matches) the record is 37–40 against 42.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.76 | 3.06 | 3–8 | 4.5 | −0.71 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.67 | 2.67 | 6–15 | 10.0 | −1.00 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.91 | 3.21 | 7–7 | 8.9 | −0.70 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.81 | 3.66 | 11–6 | 11.4 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.61 | 4.51 | 10–4 | 7.5 | +0.90 | 1.6 | 12% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
