John Jackson Memorial Team Race

HostGeorgetown
Date03/09/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	9–1
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	7–3
3	Connecticut College	Camels	6–4
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	5–5
5	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	5–5
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	4–6
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	3–7
8	University of Virginia	Wahoos	1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 530 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 40 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.487 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	2	10.98 school −0.17	Hans Henken / Samantha Steele Antoine Screve / Rebecca King 3.20 Mateo Vargas / Tally Buckstaff	74%	9–1 (90%)	+1.6
2	College of Charleston Cougars	1	11.03 school +0.26	Christopher Banholzer / Tierney Driscoll 3.37 Jake Reynolds / Katie Dowling Nick Johnstone / Emily Stuart 6–3 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 1–0	74%	7–3 (70%)	−0.5
3	Connecticut College Camels	5	9.89 school +0.22	Peter Miller / Stephanie Kapinos 3.34 Kevin Martland / Grace Medley 3.37 Jordan Bothwick / Marina Sachs 2.60 4–2 Pearson Potts / Marina Sachs 3.31 2–2	49%	6–4 (60%)	+1.1
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	10.22 school +0.20, home +0.30	Matthew Gowell / Eliana Michaels Sean Golden / Annalee Leggett 3.31 Michael Schalka / Courtney Sherman 2.99 1–5 Daniel Eichler / Courtney Sherman 3.26 4–0	53%	5–5 (50%)	−0.3
5	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	9.26 school −0.25	Harry Scott / Emma Lamontagne 3.44 Tyler Steel / Whitney Taylor 3.02 Nick Valente / Christopher Whalen 2.98	44%	5–5 (50%)	+0.5
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	10.01 school +0.56	Alexander Curtiss / Allison Shane 3.18 Ian Liberty / Rachel Ryan 3.00 Nicholas Clemence / Mariah Leffingwell 2.81	62%	4–6 (40%)	−2.2
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	8.93 school +0.29	Connor Timmins / Sarah Blake Michael Popp / Julia Mckenna George Prieto / Chelsea Smith	38%	3–7 (30%)	−0.8
8	University of Virginia Wahoos	8	6.88 school +0.11	Christopher Stessing / Ellen Hubbard 2.55 Samuel Patterson / Alexandra Brenin 0.68 Gordon Wolcott / Sarah Hendrickson 3.27	6%	1–9 (10%)	+0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	10.98	12.23	9–1	7.4	+1.25	1.3	20%
8	University of Virginia	6.88	7.47	1–9	0.6	+0.59	0.2	46%
3	Connecticut College	9.89	10.48	6–4	4.9	+0.58	0.5	33%
5	SUNY Maritime College	9.26	9.58	5–5	4.5	+0.32	0.1	47%
4	Georgetown University	10.22	10.09	5–5	5.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
2	College of Charleston	11.03	10.77	7–3	7.5	−0.26	0.1	78%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	8.93	8.41	3–7	3.8	−0.52	0.3	85%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.01	8.77	4–6	6.2	−1.24	1.9	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Daniel Eichler	Georgetown University	3.26	6.26	4–0	3.1	≥+3.00	1.4	36%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	2.60	4.04	4–2	2.5	+1.44	1.6	14%
Hans Henken	Stanford University	3.76	5.01	9–1	7.4	+1.25	1.3	20%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	3.20	4.45	9–1	7.4	+1.25	1.3	20%
Mateo Vargas	Stanford University	3.92	5.17	9–1	7.4	+1.25	1.3	20%
Christopher Stessing	University of Virginia	2.55	3.14	1–9	0.6	+0.59	0.2	46%
Samuel Patterson	University of Virginia	0.68	1.27	1–9	0.6	+0.59	0.2	46%
Gordon Wolcott	University of Virginia	3.27	3.87	1–9	0.6	+0.59	0.2	46%
Peter Miller	Connecticut College	3.34	3.93	6–4	4.9	+0.58	0.5	33%
Kevin Martland	Connecticut College	3.37	3.95	6–4	4.9	+0.58	0.5	33%
Harry Scott	SUNY Maritime College	3.44	3.76	5–5	4.5	+0.32	0.1	47%
Tyler Steel	SUNY Maritime College	3.02	3.34	5–5	4.5	+0.32	0.1	47%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	2.98	3.30	5–5	4.5	+0.32	0.1	47%
Matthew Gowell	Georgetown University	3.28	3.14	5–5	5.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.31	3.17	5–5	5.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
Christopher Banholzer	College of Charleston	3.37	3.11	7–3	7.5	−0.26	0.1	78%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	3.83	3.56	7–3	7.5	−0.26	0.1	78%
Nick Johnstone	College of Charleston	2.94	2.63	6–3	6.5	−0.31	0.1	80%
Connor Timmins	U. S. Naval Academy	2.34	1.82	3–7	3.8	−0.52	0.3	85%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.20	2.68	3–7	3.8	−0.52	0.3	85%
George Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	2.55	2.02	3–7	3.8	−0.52	0.3	85%
Michael Schalka	Georgetown University	2.99	1.96	1–5	2.1	−1.03	0.8	93%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.18	1.94	4–6	6.2	−1.24	1.9	98%
Ian Liberty	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.00	1.77	4–6	6.2	−1.24	1.9	98%
Nicholas Clemence	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.81	1.57	4–6	6.2	−1.24	1.9	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	College of Charleston	30%	upset
1	2	Stanford University	Georgetown University	65%
1	3	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	95%
1	5	Stanford University	College of Charleston	54%
1	6	Connecticut College	Georgetown University	54%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
1	8	University of Virginia	SUNY Maritime College	8%	upset
1	9	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	68%
1	10	Connecticut College	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
1	11	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	84%
1	12	College of Charleston	University of Virginia	98%
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Connecticut College	40%	upset
1	14	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
1	15	Stanford University	University of Virginia	98%
1	16	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	86%
1	17	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	60%
1	18	Connecticut College	University of Virginia	94%
1	19	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
1	20	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
1	21	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	97%
1	22	Connecticut College	SUNY Maritime College	74%
1	23	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	72%
1	24	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	93%
1	25	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	75%
1	26	Stanford University	Connecticut College	81%
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	89%
1	28	SUNY Maritime College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	30%	upset
1	57	Georgetown University	Connecticut College	45%	upset
1	58	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	74%
1	59	Stanford University	Georgetown University	71%
1	60	Connecticut College	College of Charleston	17%	upset
1	61	Stanford University	Connecticut College	81%
1	62	College of Charleston	Stanford University	53%
1	63	SUNY Maritime College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	29%	upset
1	64	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	25%	upset
1	65	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	96%
1	66	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Naval Academy	53%
1	67	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	91%
1	68	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	90%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Camels	Hoyas	Privateers	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Wahoos
Stanford University Cardinal	9–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–3	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	6–4	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–5	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	5–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–6	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	1–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
2	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
3	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
4	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
5	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
6	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
7	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
8	Wahoos	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
9	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
10	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
12	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
13	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
14	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
15	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Wahoos	2-3-6
16	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
17	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
18	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
20	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
21	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
22	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
23	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
24	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
25	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
27	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
28	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
57	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
58	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
60	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
61	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
62	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
63	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
64	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
65	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
66	Privateers	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
67	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
68	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Hans Henken '15 Mateo Vargas '14	Rebecca King '13 Samantha Steele '16 Tally Buckstaff '14
College of Charleston	Cougars	Christopher Banholzer '13 Jake Reynolds '16 Nick Johnstone '15 Ryan Davidson '16	Tierney Driscoll '15 Katie Dowling '16 Emily Stuart '16
Connecticut College	Camels	Jordan Bothwick '15 Kevin Martland '14 Pearson Potts '16 Peter Miller '13	Marina Sachs '15 Grace Medley '15 Stephanie Kapinos '13
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Daniel Eichler '13 Matthew Gowell '14 Michael Schalka '13 Sean Golden '16	Courtney Sherman '13 Eliana Michaels '14 Annalee Leggett '13
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Harry Scott '13 Nick Valente '16 Tyler Steel '13	Emma Lamontagne '14 Christopher Whalen '15 Whitney Taylor '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Ian Liberty '14 Nicholas Clemence '15	Allison Shane '15 Rachel Ryan '15 Mariah Leffingwell '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Connor Timmins '14 George Prieto '13 Michael Popp '16	Sarah Blake '15 Chelsea Smith '14 Julia Mckenna '16
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Christopher Stessing '14 Gordon Wolcott '13 Samuel Patterson '16	Ellen Hubbard '14 Sarah Hendrickson '16 Alexandra Brenin '15

Conditions — 03/09/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1026.2 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 32°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.1 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 15.7 kn

From NNW (338°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1026.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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