Stanford University '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.89 (fleet 3.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 114–34 (77%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 71–22 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 34–11 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (138 matches) the record is 105–33 against 102.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 4.04 | 3.69 | 17–8 | 18.4 | −0.34 | 0.4 | 83% |
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 4.01 | 7.01 | 11–0 | 11.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 95% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.82 | 3.67 | 11–4 | 11.4 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.88 | 3.98 | 19–5 | 18.6 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.79 | 4.20 | 13–5 | 11.7 | +0.41 | 0.4 | 33% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.72 | 4.58 | 8–1 | 7.1 | +0.86 | 0.5 | 39% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.72 | 3.85 | 11–4 | 10.6 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.50 | 3.97 | 15–6 | 13.2 | +0.47 | 0.6 | 26% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 25 | 68% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.2 | 4.16 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.0 | 4.07 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 100% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.0 | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.3 | 3.72 |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 79% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.4 | 3.60 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.4 | 3.16 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 8 | 5.1 | 3.83 |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.3 | 5.69 |
| North 2 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.5 | 3.48 |
| North 1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.8 | 4.11 |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | 3.90 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 25 | 68% | — |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.5 | 3.79 |
| PCCSC Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Moody | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.8 | 3.96 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.3 | 3.67 |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.3 | 4.26 |
| North #1 and # 2 @ Stanford | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 4.61 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | 3.02 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.6 | 4.12 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.4 | 3.97 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| South 4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 3.25 |
| South 3 | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.7 | 3.88 |
| North #2 | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.2 | 5.73 |
| North 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.7 | 4.42 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.1 | 4.12 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.7 | 3.27 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.4 | 2.97 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
