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North #1 and # 2 @ Stanford

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Red 6 6 12
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 5 11 16
3 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 11 9 20
4 Stanford University Stanford University White 10 11 21
5 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 16 13 29
6 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 18 14 32
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 20 25 45
8 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1 27 26 53
9 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 22 38 60
10 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 32 29 61
11 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2 38 36 74
12 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 48 27 75
13 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 34 48 82
14 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 38 48 86
15 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 64 MRP 48 MRP 112 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 1 1 5 Mateo Vargas '14
Yuri Namikawa '14
Stanford University Stanford University Red 1 2 3 6 Hans Henken '15
Rebecca King '13
Stanford University Stanford University White 5 3 2 10 Molly Mckinney '14
Natalie Urban '15
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 4 5 11 Shane Young '14
Foya Lazare '14
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 4 5 7 16 Matthew Van Rensselaer '13
Eileen Welch '15
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 8 6 4 18 Chris Vilicich '16
Stephen Katz '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 7 7 6 20 Travis Benton '14
Sarah Adams '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 6 8 8 22 James Roberts '15
Alex Sinclair '16
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1 9 9 9 27 Hanna Miller '15
Lauren Orloff '16
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 12 10 10 32 Shaun Prestridge '13
Kathryn Cornella '16
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 10 11 13 34 Ryan Fritsen '14
Janey Lyon '16
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 11 DSQ 11 38 John Connor Bathen '14 [1]
William Burke '13 [2-3]
Elliot Voss '16 [1]
Katie Everett '15 [2-3]
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2 13 13 12 38 Charles Shane '13 [1-3]
Ethan Simpson '16 [1]
Jacob Garcia '15 [2-3]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies DSQ DSQ DSQ 48 Lucas Murray '15
Natasha Jarett '14
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's DSQ 12 DSQ 64 MRP Patrick Boyden '14
Matthew Kunnari '12
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Golden Bears222
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1333
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang101010
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers555
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters 1666
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters 2777
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks888
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos999
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal111111
Stanford UniversityStanford University Red121212
Stanford UniversityStanford University White131313
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies141414
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons161616
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Golden Bears222
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1333
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang101010
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers555
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters 1666
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters 2777
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks888
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos999
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal111111
Stanford UniversityStanford University Red121212
Stanford UniversityStanford University White131313
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies141414
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons161616
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's151515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Shaun Prestridge '13 Kathryn Cornella '16
Mustang Grant Petersen '15 Katie Davis '15
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Matthew Van Rensselaer '13 Eileen Welch '15
Keelhaulers 1 Scott Doyle '14 Ryan Orphan '16
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Chris Vilicich '16 Stephen Katz '16
Keelhaulers 2 Andrew Lamb '14 Emelia Sween '16
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Shane Young '14 Foya Lazare '14
49ers Mark Ryan '15 Kristen Barca '13
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Hanna Miller '15 Lauren Orloff '16
Otters 1 Mark Hurdle '13 David Macko '14
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Charles Shane '13 [1-3] Ethan Simpson '16 [1]
Jacob Garcia '15 [2-3]
Otters 2 Christina Stege '14 Kevin Critchlow '16
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University John Connor Bathen '14 [1]
William Burke '13 [2-3]		 Elliot Voss '16 [1]
Katie Everett '15 [2-3]
Broncos Charles Hall '13 Travis Giffen '16
Stanford University Stanford University Mateo Vargas '14 Yuri Namikawa '14
Cardinal Sarah Mace '14 Katie Riklin '13
Stanford University Stanford University Hans Henken '15 Rebecca King '13
Red John Ortel '15 Samantha Steele '16
Stanford University Stanford University Molly Mckinney '14 Natalie Urban '15
White Yuki Yoshiyasu '16 Noelle Herring '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Travis Benton '14 Sarah Adams '13
Golden Bears Joshua Goldberg '14 Ethan Pawson '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Lucas Murray '15 Natasha Jarett '14
Aggies Ryan Wilkerson '14 Estella Wong '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego James Roberts '15 Alex Sinclair '16
Tritons Christopher Keefe '14 Jiachao Yang '15
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Patrick Boyden '14 Matthew Kunnari '12
Banana Slug's Kimberley Cohan '14 Rachel Graham '13
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ryan Fritsen '14 Janey Lyon '16
Ducks Jamie Wai '12 Kaitlin Livingston '15

Conditions — 02/09/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.2 kn
avg  ·  max 3.6 kn
Gusts to 11.5 kn
From NW (321°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1017.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn · NW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.50 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →