California State University Long Beach '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 51.68 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 17 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.27 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 20 | Spring 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.23 (fleet 3.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–21 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 6–21 against 11.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.59 | 1.44 | 3–5 | 4.0 | −1.15 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 2014-05-03 | 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | -0.51 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2013-04-05 | PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.57 | -0.29 | 3–7 | 7.5 | −2.87 | 9.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 3.25 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 0.38 |
| PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.5 | 1.45 |
| Long Beach Gold Invite | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.6 | 3.48 |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 2.99 |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.4 | 2.92 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 3.12 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.8 | 3.44 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.2 | 2.98 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.2 | 2.98 |
| Spring 2014 Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.6 | 3.22 |
| South 4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 3.74 |
| South 3 | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.2 | 2.87 |
| PCCSC South 5 Designate | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.5 | 3.46 |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.8 | 2.96 |
| North 1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.2 | 2.51 |
| Jeff Simon, South 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.6 | 2.08 |
| Jeff Simon, South 1 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.2 | 2.25 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | -0.30 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 5 | 13.8 | 1.83 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.0 | 2.46 |
| 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2013 Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.4 | 2.23 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 15.7 | 1.35 |
| PCCSC Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.4 | 1.96 |
| Fall Dinghy Championship - 2 div | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.0 | 2.80 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.0 | 2.80 |
| Spring 2013 Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.8 | 2.56 |
| South 5 Designate | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.6 | 2.90 |
| South 4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| South 3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.5 | 4.29 |
| PJ Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.9 | 2.54 |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.0 | 2.81 |
| North #1 and # 2 @ Stanford | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 3.25 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta South 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 3.72 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta South 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.7 | 2.71 |
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.2 | 1.35 |
| Fall 2012 Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.6 | 2.19 |
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Crew | A | 12 | 3.9 | — |
| Fall Dinghy PCC's 3 Div | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.0 | 3.14 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.0 | 3.14 |
| Spring 2012 Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.7 | -0.48 |
| South 5-Designate | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| Fall 2011 Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl 2012 | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
