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PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 57 40 97
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 52 57 109
3 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 74 76 150
4 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 42 109 151
5 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 94 74 168
6 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 78 92 170
7 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 74 107 181
8 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Lady Bears 122 107 229
9 University of Southern California University of Southern California Women of Troy 118 132 250
10 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 140 118 258
11 Hosei University Hosei University Hosei 183 75 258
12 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 105 162 267
13 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 142 139 281
14 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 187 182 369
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 2 RDG 4 1 1 2 3 7 3 5 7 2 1 42 Gregory Dair '15
Bianca Barnes '15
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 10 1 1 1 2 2 1 7 9 1 8 3 4 2 52 Chuck Eaton '17
Patrick Manuel '16
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 4 3 2 3 3 3 8 2 1 2 9 9 5 3 57 John Silvestri '16
Baillie Lawless '15
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 2 11 3 2 7 4 5 4 4 7 3 1 10 11 74 Jeremy Hitchcock '17 [1-12]
Matthew Kobylinski '18 [13-14]
Cole Brauer '17 [1-12]
Gianna Bailey '18 [13-14]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 5 5 4 6 5 6 7 9 5 5 1 6 6 4 74 John Coakley '16
Paul Chyz '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 11 4 6 10 6 9 9 1 3 4 2 4 1 8 78 Cobi Allen '16 [1-14]
Claire Stivers '18 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Marina Fennell '17 [3-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 7 9 7 5 4 7 6 6 8 10 6 2 7 10 94 Sean Beaulieu '18
Catherine Corssen '15
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 8 6 9 11 9 10 4 8 12 6 4 10 3 5 105 Mark Ryan '15 [1-4]
Tyler Webb '15 [5-8]
Sunny Scarbrough '17 [9-14]
Ari Zeen '17 [1-8]
Nicholas Santos '15 [9-14]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Women of Troy 3 10 10 9 11 5 12 5 6 11 10 5 9 12 118 Kendall Sanson '15 [1-14]
Hollis Barth '16 [1-12]
Lisa Luciano '18 [13-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Lady Bears 9 8 8 7 8 11 3 12 13 9 11 8 8 7 122 Jennifer Hays '17
Janice Wondolleck '15
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 6 7 12 8 10 13 10 13 10 13 7 13 12 6 140 Louise Currie '18
Jazlyne Rojas '17
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 12 12 11 13 12 8 11 10 2 8 12 11 11 9 142 Ian Markowitz '17
Alexandre Mutricy '17
Hosei University Hosei University Hosei 14 13 14 12 14 14 14 11 11 14 14 12 13 13 183 Kodai Kitsumoto '15
Ryo Tsuchiya '15
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 13 14 13 14 13 12 13 14 14 12 13 14 14 14 187 Ashley-Belle Burns '17
Sandra Macko '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 5 2 3 1 5 4 3 6 1 2 2 1 1 4 40 Charles Welsh '18
Angelina Todaro '16
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 6 7 8 4 4 3 2 5 2 1 5 4 5 1 57 Giacomo Paoletti '15
Katrina Berry '15
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 1 10 4 2 2 5 4 1 7 8 3 10 11 6 74 Shannon Killian '16
Kathryn Travers '16
Hosei University Hosei University Hosei 4 4 5 5 6 14 1 3 5 7 1 7 6 7 75 Ayaka Nemoto '15
Sayoko Ishikawa '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 7 6 2 6 7 2 12 2 8 11 6 2 2 3 76 Peter Wong '18
Caroline Carney '16
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 5 14 9 1 1 9 10 3 6 13 12 4 2 92 Alexandria Ivory '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Hayden Christensen '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Danielle Erjavec '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Madisson Thomas '17 [5-6, 11-12]
Claire Nuttall '18 [9-10, 13-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Lady Bears 8 3 10 8 13 7 10 8 6 10 7 5 3 9 107 Kyra Oakes '18
Ekaterina Goncharova '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 9 1 6 3 10 10 8 12 11 3 12 3 9 10 107 Mackenzie Cook '17 [1-6, 13-14]
Colton Saunders '15 [7-10]
Naish Harlan '15 [11-12]
Taylor Morgan '16 [1-6, 13-14]
Hana Bruno '16 [7-8]
Mackenzie Edwards '16 [9-10]
Meghan Strohmeyer '16 [11-12]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 12 8 1 7 3 12 6 7 4 13 9 9 7 11 109 Jeffrey Tedmori '15
Maddy Brownsea '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine 2 9 9 11 12 8 13 4 10 9 4 11 8 8 118 Caitlin Schadt '18
Madeline Anzivino '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Women of Troy 10 14 13 10 9 9 5 13 9 4 11 6 14 5 132 Olivia Gebelein '15 [1-14]
Nicole Bosetti '15 [1-8]
Hope Modugno '18 [9-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 11 12 7 12 8 6 7 11 13 5 10 13 12 12 139 Eric Witte '17
Alexandre Mutricy '17
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 13 11 12 14 11 11 11 9 14 14 8 8 13 13 162 Tyler Caroe '15 [1-4]
John Mcinerney '18 [5-8]
Michael Colavita '14 [9-14]
Sarah Costa '15 [1-6]
Brooke Scholl '16 [7-14]
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 14 13 11 13 14 13 14 14 12 12 14 14 10 14 182 Hannah Thielcke '15
Josef Schwan '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Hosei UniversityHosei University Hosei557799111113131133
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears991111131311335577
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Lady Bears10101212141422446688
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds88101012121414224466
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins335577991111131311
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers44668810101212141422
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Green131311335577991111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine14142244668810101212
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows12121414224466881010
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 166881010121214142244
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 2779911111313113355
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans113355779911111313
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Women of Troy22446688101012121414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos111113131133557799

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Hosei UniversityHosei University Hosei66881010121214142244
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears10101212141422446688
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Lady Bears111113131133557799
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds991111131311335577
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins44668810101212141422
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers557799111113131133
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Green14142244668810101212
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine113355779911111313
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows131311335577991111
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 1779911111313113355
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 288101012121414224466
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans22446688101012121414
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Women of Troy335577991111131311
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos12121414224466881010
School / Team SkipperCrew
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Gregory Dair '15 Bianca Barnes '15
Dolphins Jeffrey Tedmori '15 Maddy Brownsea '18
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Mark Ryan '15 [1-4]
Tyler Webb '15 [5-8]
Sunny Scarbrough '17 [9-14]		 Ari Zeen '17 [1-8]
Nicholas Santos '15 [9-14]
49ers Tyler Caroe '15 [1-4]
John Mcinerney '18 [5-8]
Michael Colavita '14 [9-14]		 Sarah Costa '15 [1-6]
Brooke Scholl '16 [7-14]
Hosei University Hosei University Kodai Kitsumoto '15 Ryo Tsuchiya '15
Hosei Ayaka Nemoto '15 Sayoko Ishikawa '15
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University John Silvestri '16 Baillie Lawless '15
Seahawks 1 Charles Welsh '18 Angelina Todaro '16
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Sean Beaulieu '18 Catherine Corssen '15
Seahawks 2 Shannon Killian '16 Kathryn Travers '16
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Ashley-Belle Burns '17 Sandra Macko '18
UBC Thunderbirds Hannah Thielcke '15 Josef Schwan '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Ian Markowitz '17 Alexandre Mutricy '17
Bears Eric Witte '17 Alexandre Mutricy '17
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Jennifer Hays '17 Janice Wondolleck '15
Lady Bears Kyra Oakes '18 Ekaterina Goncharova '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Cobi Allen '16 [1-14] Claire Stivers '18 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Marina Fennell '17 [3-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Gauchos Alexandria Ivory '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Hayden Christensen '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Danielle Erjavec '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Madisson Thomas '17 [5-6, 11-12]
Claire Nuttall '18 [9-10, 13-14]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Jeremy Hitchcock '17 [1-12]
Matthew Kobylinski '18 [13-14]		 Cole Brauer '17 [1-12]
Gianna Bailey '18 [13-14]
Rainbow Green Mackenzie Cook '17 [1-6, 13-14]
Colton Saunders '15 [7-10]
Naish Harlan '15 [11-12]		 Taylor Morgan '16 [1-6, 13-14]
Hana Bruno '16 [7-8]
Mackenzie Edwards '16 [9-10]
Meghan Strohmeyer '16 [11-12]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Louise Currie '18 Jazlyne Rojas '17
Rainbow Wahine Caitlin Schadt '18 Madeline Anzivino '15
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Chuck Eaton '17 Patrick Manuel '16
Rainbows Giacomo Paoletti '15 Katrina Berry '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California John Coakley '16 Paul Chyz '18
Trojans Peter Wong '18 Caroline Carney '16
University of Southern California University of Southern California Kendall Sanson '15 [1-14] Hollis Barth '16 [1-12]
Lisa Luciano '18 [13-14]
Women of Troy Olivia Gebelein '15 [1-14] Nicole Bosetti '15 [1-8]
Hope Modugno '18 [9-14]

Conditions — 01/17/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.5 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From ESE (111°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1016.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn · E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hawaii: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hawaii by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Hawaii, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →