California State University Long Beach '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 23.90 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.110 rating points from 32 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.49 (fleet 2.06) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–5 (38%) as crew 0–9 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 0–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 3–14 against 4.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.07 | 0.92 | 3–5 | 4.0 | −1.15 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 2014-05-03 | 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | crew | 2.29 | -0.71 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.8 | 1.50 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.7 | 0.58 |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 3 | 17.3 | 1.70 |
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| St Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.4 | 2.22 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Reserve | A | 8 | 8.6 | — |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 3.14 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.7 | 2.32 |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 16 | 3.9 | 2.86 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 2.00 |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| Trojan Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.9 | 2.71 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.2 | 1.60 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.0 | 2.22 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship - 2 Div | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | 0.89 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | 0.86 |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Crew | B | 7 | 6.9 | — |
| South Designate | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.0 | 3.05 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 5.7 | — |
| PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 2.15 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.2 | 1.63 |
| Long Beach Gold Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 2.36 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.0 | 1.73 |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Crew | B | 5 | 5.6 | — |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 2.74 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.1 | 2.08 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 9 | 4.8 | 3.05 |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.6 | 1.82 |
| Central Coast Challenge | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 2.41 |
| 2014 Fall Women's PCC's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.4 | 1.28 |
| Spring 2014 Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Crew | A | 3 | 3.7 | — |
| South 4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | 1.52 |
| South 3 | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | 1.17 |
| PCCSC South 5 Designate | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | 2.29 |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Crew | B | 10 | 5.5 | — |
| North 2 | Skipper | B | 4 | 15.5 | -1.52 |
| North 1 | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | 0.37 |
| Jeff Simon, South 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.9 | 1.33 |
| Jeff Simon, South 1 | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.8 | 1.21 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 7.4 | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Crew | B | 5 | 13.0 | — |
| 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2013 Season | |||||
| Women's Pacific Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.4 | 2.10 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 1.98 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.8 | 2.32 |
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.9 | 1.80 |
| Fall Dinghy Championship - JV | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.3 | 1.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
