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Trojan Women's Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 40 40
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 49 49
3 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 56 56
4 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 74 MRP 74 MRP
5 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 86 MRP 86 MRP
6 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 89 89
7 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 96 96
8 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 107 107
9 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 121 MRP 121 MRP
10 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 134 134
11 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 139 139
12 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 162 162
13 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 182 182
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 5 1 DSQ 2 2 1 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 40 Ginger Luckey '16
Ellen Gable '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 4 4 7 1 1 3 2 3 7 4 3 2 3 5 49 Cassie Obel '19
Haley Fox '18
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 1 8 4 5 3 5 1 6 3 9 4 3 2 2 56 Elena Vandenberg '18
Olivia Gugliemini '19
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 2 3 1 8 4 6 6 1 1 3 2 5 8 4 74 MRP Sunny Scarbrough '17
Anna Rubino '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3 7 3 6 5 2 5 7 5 2 8 6 4 3 86 MRP Jennifer Hays '17
Lauren Rehbein '16
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 6 2 2 9 8 8 9 5 9 5 6 7 6 7 89 Caitlin Schadt '18
Gianna Bailey '18
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 7 5 8 3 9 11 10 2 6 6 5 9 7 8 96 Christina Gasparich '19
Hope Modugno '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 9 9 9 4 7 7 8 10 8 7 7 4 9 9 107 Louise Currie '18
Taylor Morgan '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 BKD 10 10 7 6 4 3 9 4 8 12 10 5 6 121 MRP Kyra Oakes '18
Ekaterina Goncharova '18
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 8 6 5 13 12 9 7 11 10 10 9 11 11 12 134
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 10 12 6 10 10 10 11 8 11 12 10 8 10 11 139 Jazlyner Rojas '17
Erika Winner '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 11 11 12 12 11 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 10 162 Melissa Schem '18 [1-14]
Natalie Millstein '18 [1-8]
No Show [9-14]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 12 13 11 11 13 12 13 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 182 Emily Quirke '19
Mackenzie Freeman '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 166666666666666
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 21313131313131313131313131313
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 122222222222222
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers 21111111111111111111111111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 133333333333333
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 244444444444444
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 355555555555555
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 177777777777777
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 288888888888888
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 31212121212121212121212121212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 199999999999999
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 21010101010101010101010101010
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos11111111111111

Conditions — 09/26/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1009.0 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1009.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southern Cal: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.39 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →