University of California at Berkeley '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.43 (fleet 1.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–18 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 3–11 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 4–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 7–18 against 10.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-24 | PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 1.69 | 3.32 | 2–3 | 1.1 | +1.63 | 1.2 | 21% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.70 | 0.75 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.96 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2015-02-28 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.89 | -0.66 | 4–7 | 7.1 | −1.56 | 3.4 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.4 | 1.90 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.0 | 2.16 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Reserve | A | 9 | 8.3 | — |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | 2.38 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 2.06 |
| PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.5 | 1.66 |
| 2016 North Gold Regatta | Skipper | A | 17 | 6.2 | 2.29 |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh-Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 2.63 |
| Trojan Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.2 | 1.12 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.9 | 1.26 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 4 | 4.5 | 3.04 |
| 2015 Women's PCC's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.3 | 2.47 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 6 | 20.5 | 0.36 |
| South Designate | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.2 | 0.71 |
| PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.6 | 1.15 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.7 | 1.90 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.1 | -1.14 |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.3 | 0.79 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 6 | 17.8 | 0.99 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 25.5 | 0.14 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 19.9 | 0.12 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | A | 9 | 19.9 | 0.12 |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 1.29 |
| Central Coast Challenge | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.1 | 1.55 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Kyra Oakes |  Dos Pueblos |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
