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Cal Team Race

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,181 team race matches sailed before 2015-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 32 matches (62%) with a log-loss of 0.620 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.59 ± 0.36: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 8% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustang		13.92Grace Carrick / Haley Weber
David Cornella / Kathryn Cornella
Joseph Lausten / Kathryn Eberle		75%9–2 (82%)+0.8
2California State University Monterey Bay
Otters		52.19Olivia Gibbons / Casey Weisenseel 1.01
Peter Schmidt / Kylee Walterman
Alicia Ward / Lauren Orloff		34%7–3 (70%)+3.6
3University of California at Davis
Aggies		42.71
school +0.24		Lucas Murray / Antonio Rojas Mayol 0.81 4–2
Robert Jones / Joseph Naro 4–2
William Emberley / Samuel Sara 1.02 2–2
William Emberley / Lucas Murray 1.24 2–2
Robert Jones / Natasha Jarett 2–2
William Emberley / Natasha Jarett 1.23 2–0
Antonio Rojas Mayol / Samuel Sara 0–2
Samuel Sara / Joseph Naro 2–0		52%6–4 (60%)+0.8
4University of California at Berkeley
Bears 2		33.47
school −0.28, home +0.28		Tyler Hogan / Emily Hawkins 0.40
Cole Fargo / Katie Hitchcock
Henry Keenan / Chun Ting Justin Lai		62%6–6 (50%)−1.4
5University of California at Berkeley
Bears 1		23.48
school −0.28, home +0.28		Saul Rosen / Winter Martin 0.98
Ian Markowitz / Alexandre Mutricy 0.98
Kyra Oakes / Ekaterina Goncharova		65%4–7 (36%)−3.1
6University of California at Irvine
Anteaters		6-0.28
school +0.15		James Heller / Philip Tagatac 0.13
Daniel Diaz / Robin Fales
Addison Whittet / Mary Oneill		6%0–10 (0%)−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2California State University Monterey Bay Otters2.194.187–33.4+2.005.51%
1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang3.924.379–28.2+0.450.244%
3University of California at Davis Aggies2.713.136–45.2+0.420.242%
4University of California at Berkeley Bears 23.472.856–67.4−0.620.690%
5University of California at Berkeley Bears 13.481.924–77.1−1.563.499%
6University of California at Irvine Anteaters-0.28-3.280–100.6≤−3.000.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Olivia GibbonsCalifornia State University Monterey Bay1.013.007–33.4+2.005.51%
Alicia WardCalifornia State University Monterey Bay0.182.187–33.4+2.005.51%
Lucas MurrayUniversity of California at Davis0.812.334–21.9+1.522.48%
Grace CarrickCal Poly University S.L.O.1.111.569–28.2+0.450.244%
David CornellaCal Poly University S.L.O.1.361.819–28.2+0.450.244%
Joseph LaustenCal Poly University S.L.O.0.681.129–28.2+0.450.244%
William EmberleyUniversity of California at Davis1.021.446–45.2+0.420.242%
Robert JonesUniversity of California at Davis0.110.536–45.2+0.420.242%
Tyler HoganUniversity of California at Berkeley0.40-0.226–67.4−0.620.690%
Henry KeenanUniversity of California at Berkeley1.400.796–67.4−0.620.690%
Saul RosenUniversity of California at Berkeley0.98-0.584–77.1−1.563.499%
Ian MarkowitzUniversity of California at Berkeley0.98-0.584–77.1−1.563.499%
James HellerUniversity of California at Irvine0.13-2.870–100.6≤−3.000.9>99%
Daniel DiazUniversity of California at Irvine-0.42-3.420–100.6≤−3.000.9>99%
Addison WhittetUniversity of California at Irvine-0.79-3.790–100.6≤−3.000.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
1Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters82%
2University of California at Davis AggiesUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 236%upset
3University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Irvine Anteaters98%
4Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Davis Aggies74%
5University of California at Berkeley Bears 1California State University Monterey Bay Otters78%
6University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Irvine Anteaters98%
7University of California at Davis AggiesUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 135%upset
8Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 262%
9California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters92%
10University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Berkeley Bears 149%upset
11California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Davis Aggies14%upset
12Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters98%
13California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 223%upset
14Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 161%
15University of California at Davis AggiesUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters84%
16California State University Monterey Bay OttersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang15%upset
17University of California at Davis AggiesUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 232%upset
18University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Irvine Anteaters98%
19Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Davis Aggies77%
20California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 122%upset
21University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Irvine Anteaters98%
22University of California at Davis AggiesUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 133%upset
23Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 262%
24California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters92%
25University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Berkeley Bears 251%
26California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Davis Aggies15%upset
27Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters99%
28University of California at Berkeley Bears 2California State University Monterey Bay Otters78%
29Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 162%
30University of California at Davis AggiesUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters83%
31University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Berkeley Bears 149%upset
32University of California at Berkeley Bears 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang38%upset

Round 0

TeamRec.MustangOttersAggies21Anteaters
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang9–2✕LWLLW
California State University Monterey Bay Otters7–3W✕WLLW
University of California at Davis Aggies6–4LL✕WWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears 210–13WWL✕✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears 110–13WWL✕✕W
University of California at Irvine Anteaters0–10LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-3 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 4-5-6
2 University of California at Davis Aggies 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 3-4-6
3 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4-5-6
4 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-6 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 3-4-5
5 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-3 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 4-5-6
6 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-4-5 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2-3-6
7 University of California at Davis Aggies 1-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 2-5-6
8 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-5-6
9 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-2-3 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4-5-6
10 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-4-6
11 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-2-4 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 3-5-6
12 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-3 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4-5-6
13 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 3-4-6
14 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-4-6
15 University of California at Davis Aggies 1-2-6 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3-4-5
16 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3-4-6
17 University of California at Davis Aggies 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-5-6
18 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3-4-6
19 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
20 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-5-6
21 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-4 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3-5-6
22 University of California at Davis Aggies 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-4-6
23 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 3-4-5
24 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2-3-4 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-5-6
25 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-5-6
26 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
27 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-3 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4-5-6
28 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 2-3-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-5-6
29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 2-5-6
30 University of California at Davis Aggies 1-2-3 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4-5-6
31 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-5-6
32 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3-4-5

Conditions — 02/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1008.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.4 kn
avg  ·  max 3.5 kn
Gusts to 11.5 kn
From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover42% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1008.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Berkeley — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Berkeley in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled fleet-race days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →