University of California at Berkeley '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.30 (fleet 1.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–37 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 13–20 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 4–7 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 19–37 against 21.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-30 | PCCSC Team Race Championships - Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 1.91 | -1.09 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| 2017-02-25 | 2017 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.56 | 2.75 | 7–10 | 3.9 | +1.19 | 2.7 | 5% |
| 2017-02-11 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.66 | 1.65 | 6–2 | 6.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.14 | 0.19 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.96 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2015-02-28 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.98 | -0.58 | 4–7 | 7.1 | −1.56 | 3.4 | 99% |
| 2014-03-01 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.76 | -0.03 | 1–2 | 1.2 | −0.78 | 0.1 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.6 | 3.09 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 1.35 |
| PCCSC Team Race Championships - Carter Ford Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| 2017 PCCSC Coed Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.1 | 1.45 |
| 2017 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 41% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 2.46 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.1 | 1.27 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.9 | 2.32 |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 0.83 |
| Long Beach Black Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 1.30 |
| Cardinal | Skipper | A | 11 | 16.2 | 0.36 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.8 | 0.89 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 1.59 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.1 | 1.01 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.1 | 1.01 |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 1.32 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South 5 Designate | Skipper | A | 10 | 19.6 | 0.22 |
| North 3 | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.4 | 0.10 |
| North 4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 1.37 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A, B | 9 | 8.1 | 0.90 |
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 1.75 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
