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Long Beach Black Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 35 35
2 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 55 55
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 59 59
4 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 63 63
5 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 4 64 64
6 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 82 82
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 87 87
8 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 101 101
9 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 104 104
10 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 112 112
11 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 117 117
12 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 146 146
13 Westmont College Westmont College Warriors 2 153 153
14 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 163 163
15 Westmont College Westmont College Warriors 1 165 165
16 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 175 175
17 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 176 176
18 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 195 195
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 6 1 5 2 1 7 1 1 3 1 6 1 35 Neil Stapleton '18
Rory Mcclish '18
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 1 5 11 3 2 1 9 4 5 5 4 5 55 Antonio Rojas Mayol '16
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 4 14 3 4 4 4 10 3 1 3 1 8 59 Tristram Craig '18
Marina Fennell '17
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 2 4 2 11 11 3 7 5 2 8 2 6 63 Henry Keenan '18
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 4 5 2 6 5 8 2 4 8 13 4 5 2 64 Peter Wong '18
Hank Huang '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 12 6 4 7 3 11 2 7 7 6 13 4 82 Alan Simonini '18
Hope Modugno '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 9 3 7 9 5 5 11 2 4 11 7 14 87 Ian Markowitz '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 8 8 13 1 12 8 6 14 6 7 11 7 101 Hollis Barth '16
Nicole Bosetti '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 10 10 17 8 18 10 3 11 9 2 3 3 104 Olivia Gebelein '15
Mackenzie Freeman '18
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 3 7 8 6 7 6 14 13 14 17 8 9 112 Chad Hardgrove '15
Kylie Jenkins '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 11 11 1 12 10 9 8 6 11 9 12 17 117 Eric Witte '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 7 13 9 14 6 17 13 17 10 13 17 10 146 Samuel Rohrbach '17
Westmont College Westmont College Warriors 2 18 15 10 10 9 15 12 12 16 10 10 16 153 Rhett Streelman '18
Abby Gritter '17
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 16 9 12 15 17 16 16 10 12 12 15 13 163 Joseph Elvig '17 [1-9]
Ryan Henry '18 [10-12]
Joe Rosser '16 [1-9]
Westmont College Westmont College Warriors 1 13 17 15 13 13 13 15 15 17 14 9 11 165 Kalvyn Ngo '17
Amy Woo '16
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 15 12 16 16 16 18 5 16 15 15 16 15 175 Conor Mcgee '17 [1-12]
Alexandra Heisler '18 [1-9]
Andrew Kinton '17 [10-12]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 17 16 18 18 14 12 18 9 8 16 18 12 176 Alana Mcsween '17
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 14 18 14 17 15 14 17 18 18 18 14 18 195 Samuel Sara '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 1404040404040404040404040
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 2999999999999
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils 3393939393939393939393939
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1777777777777
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2888888888888
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 3231231231231231231231231231231231231
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1373737373737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2383838383838383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 3252525252525252525252525
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 4262626262626262626262626
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 1474747474747474747474747
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 2471471471471471471471471471471471471
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 3107107107107107107107107107107107107
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons303030303030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1313131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2323232323232323232323232
Westmont CollegeWestmont College Warriors 1132132132132132132132132132132132132
Westmont CollegeWestmont College Warriors 2371371371371371371371371371371371371

Conditions — 03/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 36%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From SSW (193°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity36% Pressure1015.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at CSU Long Beach: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.37 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at CSU Long Beach by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at CSU Long Beach: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →