University of California at Berkeley '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 (fleet 2.23) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–28 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 17–20 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 10–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (55 matches) the record is 27–28 against 23.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | Pacific Coast Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.04 | 1.47 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.57 | 0.1 | 87% |
| 2018-02-24 | 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.78 | 2.65 | 5–9 | 3.4 | +0.87 | 1.0 | 19% |
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.64 | 2.04 | 11–6 | 10.1 | +0.41 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.55 | 4.57 | 4–2 | 1.4 | +3.01 | 5.5 | 1% |
| 2015-02-28 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.40 | 0.79 | 6–6 | 7.4 | −0.62 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Pacific Coast Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.1 | 2.13 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.9 | 2.05 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Reserve | A | 9 | 8.3 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh-Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 2.31 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.5 | 1.77 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 7 | 16.6 | 1.22 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 7 | 14.3 | 1.85 |
| South Designate | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.1 | 1.47 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 7.7 | — |
| Long Beach Black Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 2.01 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.1 | 0.20 |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 1.38 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Coast Challenge | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.0 | 1.57 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
