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Cal Team Race

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,270 team race matches sailed before 2018-02-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 62 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.526 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.57 ± 0.24: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 8% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		17.53
school +0.18		Jacob Fisker-Andersen / Kian Patrick 2.35
Benjamin Rohr / Emi Stephanoff 2.23
Johannes Mcelvain / Bennett Zemke 2.72 9–0
Johannes Mcelvain / Lucas Earley 2.59 8–0		90%17–0 (100%)+1.7
2University of California at Berkeley
Bears 2		45.57
school −0.17, home +0.42		Henry Keenan / Samuel Brees 1.64
Cole Fargo / Kartikye Mittal 1.48
Holden Payne / Stuart Johnson		59%11–6 (65%)+0.9
3University of California at Berkeley
Bears 1		26.43
school −0.17, home +0.42		Andrew Solomon / Gina Canzona 2.33
Josefina Ruggieri / Olivia Macdonald
Drake Hayes / Megan Grosspietsch 2.39		74%10–7 (59%)−2.6
4University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		35.83
school +0.34		Sampson Reynolds / Olivia Beers 1.93
Marina Fennell / Margot Mason
Jack Holbrook / Aine Roonan 1.55		64%8–9 (47%)−2.9
5University of California at Los Angeles
Bruins		53.07
school −0.27		Nicholas Lenz Lenz / Marianne Simpson 1.69
Bleiz Larzul / Christopher Dinkel
Arjun Boddu / Zoe Hessler 3–5
Arjun Boddu / Mingyi Chen 1–5		29%4–10 (29%)−0.1
6University of California at Davis
Aggies		81.64
school +0.23		Jayden Potter / Jodie Jacobs
James Letchinger / Anthony El-Sokkary
Burak Kocal / Jenna Rutledge		10%4–10 (29%)+2.5
7California State University Monterey Bay
Otters		63.01
school +0.26		Peter Schmidt / Kylee Walterman 1.07
Alicia Ward / Caila Devlin 0.70
Everitt Keneipp / Clover Stubbert		28%4–10 (29%)+0.1
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustang		72.81
school +0.40		Dallas Butler / Haley Weber
Liam Hood / Maddie Roman 1.97
James Kerman / Lauren Matich 3–5
Mitchell Carroll / Lauren Matich 1–5		26%4–10 (29%)+0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers7.5310.5317–015.3≥+3.002.714%
6University of California at Davis Aggies1.643.254–101.5+1.613.24%
2University of California at Berkeley Bears 25.575.9811–610.1+0.410.339%
7Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang2.813.034–103.6+0.220.154%
7California State University Monterey Bay Otters3.013.054–103.9+0.040.063%
5University of California at Los Angeles Bruins3.073.014–104.1−0.070.068%
3University of California at Berkeley Bears 16.435.2610–712.6−1.172.298%
4University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos5.834.458–910.9−1.382.899%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Jacob Fisker-AndersenCalifornia Maritime Academy2.355.3517–015.3≥+3.002.714%
Benjamin RohrCalifornia Maritime Academy2.235.2317–015.3≥+3.002.714%
James LetchingerUniversity of California at Davis0.231.844–101.5+1.613.24%
Burak KocalUniversity of California at Davis-0.191.424–101.5+1.613.24%
James KermanCal Poly University S.L.O.0.070.833–52.1+0.760.534%
Henry KeenanUniversity of California at Berkeley1.642.0411–610.1+0.410.339%
Dallas ButlerCal Poly University S.L.O.0.160.394–103.6+0.220.154%
Alicia WardCalifornia State University Monterey Bay0.700.754–103.9+0.040.063%
Everitt KeneippCalifornia State University Monterey Bay0.570.624–103.9+0.040.063%
Nicholas Lenz LenzUniversity of California at Los Angeles1.691.624–104.1−0.070.068%
Arjun BodduUniversity of California at Los Angeles0.650.584–104.1−0.070.068%
Bleiz LarzulUniversity of California at Los Angeles0.560.494–104.1−0.070.068%
Mitchell CarrollCal Poly University S.L.O.-0.10-1.181–51.6−1.080.494%
Andrew SolomonUniversity of California at Berkeley2.331.1710–712.6−1.172.298%
Sampson ReynoldsUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.930.558–910.9−1.382.899%
Marina FennellUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.670.298–910.9−1.382.899%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11California State University Monterey Bay OttersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang50%
12California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Davis Aggies100%
13University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Los Angeles Bruins92%
14University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos63%
15California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang99%
16California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 28%upset
17University of California at Davis AggiesUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1%upset
18University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Los Angeles Bruins97%
19California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 290%
110University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang96%
111California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins49%upset
112University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Davis Aggies99%
113University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos43%upset
114California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins99%
115University of California at Davis AggiesCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang24%upset
116University of California at Berkeley Bears 1California State University Monterey Bay Otters97%
117University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins94%
118University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Davis Aggies98%
119California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters99%
120Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 13%upset
121University of California at Davis AggiesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins20%upset
122University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters94%
123University of California at Berkeley Bears 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang93%
124California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 174%
125California State University Monterey Bay OttersUniversity of California at Davis Aggies79%
126Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins45%upset
127California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos84%
128University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Berkeley Bears 130%upset
229Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters47%upset
230California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Davis Aggies100%
231University of California at Los Angeles BruinsUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 28%upset
232University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 135%upset
233California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters99%
234University of California at Berkeley Bears 2Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang93%
235University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Davis Aggies98%
236University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Los Angeles Bruins96%
237California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 288%
238University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters94%
239University of California at Los Angeles BruinsCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang55%
240University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Davis Aggies99%
241University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos44%upset
242California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins99%
243University of California at Davis AggiesCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters22%upset
244University of California at Berkeley Bears 1Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang97%
245University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins93%
246University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Davis Aggies98%
247California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang99%
248University of California at Berkeley Bears 1California State University Monterey Bay Otters97%
249University of California at Los Angeles BruinsUniversity of California at Davis Aggies79%
250University of California at Santa Barbara GauchosCal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang96%
251University of California at Berkeley Bears 2California State University Monterey Bay Otters93%
252California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 172%
253Cal Poly University S.L.O. MustangUniversity of California at Davis Aggies70%
254University of California at Los Angeles BruinsCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters53%
255California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos83%
256University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Berkeley Bears 131%upset
457California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 287%
458California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 172%
459California Maritime Academy KeelhaulersUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos83%
460University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Berkeley Bears 269%
461University of California at Berkeley Bears 2University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos45%upset
462University of California at Berkeley Bears 1University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos64%

Round 1

TeamRec.Keelhaulers21GauchosBruinsAggiesOttersMustang
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers7–0✕WWWWWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears 29–5L✕✕WWWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears 19–5L✕✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3–4LLL✕WLWW
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins0–7LLLL✕LLL
University of California at Davis Aggies3–4LLLWW✕LW
California State University Monterey Bay Otters4–3LLLLWW✕W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang2–5LLLLWLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.Keelhaulers21GauchosBruinsAggiesOttersMustang
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers7–0✕WWWWWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears 29–5L✕✕WWWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears 19–5L✕✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos5–2LLL✕WWWW
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins4–3LLLL✕WWW
University of California at Davis Aggies1–6LLLLL✕WL
California State University Monterey Bay Otters0–7LLLLLL✕L
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang2–5LLLLLWW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.Keelhaulers21Gauchos
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers3–0✕WWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears 23–3L✕✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears 13–3L✕✕W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-5-6
2 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
3 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-5-6
4 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
5 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 3-5-6
6 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 3-4-5
7 University of California at Davis Aggies 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-4-6
8 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-6 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-4-5
9 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 4-5-6
10 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-5-6
11 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-5-6
12 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-5 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 3-4-6
13 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
14 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4-5-6
15 University of California at Davis Aggies 1-3-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2-4-5
16 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-6 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-4-5
17 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-4-6
18 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-5 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 3-4-6
19 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 4-5-6
20 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-5-6
21 University of California at Davis Aggies 2-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-5-6
22 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-4-6
23 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-4-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2-3-6
24 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-5-6
25 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-3-5 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 2-4-6
26 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-6 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-4-5
27 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-5-6
28 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-4-5
29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-3-6 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2-4-5
30 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
31 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 4-5-6
32 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 2-4-6
33 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-4-6
34 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 4-5-6
35 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-5 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 1-4-6
36 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-4-5 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-3-6
37 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 4-5-6
38 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-5-6
39 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2-5-6
40 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
41 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
42 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3-5-6
43 University of California at Davis Aggies 1-2-3 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 4-5-6
44 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 4-5-6
45 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-4 def. University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-5-6
46 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 4-5-6
47 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2-5-6
48 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-4 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 3-5-6
49 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1-2-4 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 3-5-6
50 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-4-6
51 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-3-5 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2-4-6
52 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-4-6
53 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1-2-6 def. University of California at Davis Aggies 3-4-5
54 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2-3-5 def. California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1-4-6
55 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
56 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3-4-5
57 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 3-5-6
58 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 4-5-6
59 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
60 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 4-5-6
61 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
62 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6

Conditions — 02/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From NNW (327°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1014.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Berkeley — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Berkeley in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled fleet-race days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →