University of California at Berkeley '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.82 (fleet 2.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–6 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 11–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 11–6 against 10.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.68 | 2.09 | 11–6 | 10.1 | +0.41 | 0.3 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.7 | 2.89 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Pacific Coast Champs - JV | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.0 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.1 | 2.08 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.5 | 3.41 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Holden Payne |  Coral Gables Senior High |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
