University of California at Los Angeles '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.02 (fleet 1.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–31 (18%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 5–25 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 7–31 against 8.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | Pacific Coast Team Race Championships | skipper | 1.71 | -1.29 | 0–6 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | 1.62 | 4–10 | 4.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2018-01-27 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 1.73 | 1.23 | 1–9 | 1.5 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2017-02-11 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.11 | 0.95 | 2–6 | 2.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
