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Fall Pacific Coast Championship - 2 Div

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 13 6 19
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 15 13 28
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 12 22 34
4 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 20 20 40
5 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 32 9 41
6 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 26 17 43
7 Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros 21 28 49
8 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 36 37 73
9 Vikings Vikings Vikings 29 49 78
10 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 41 53 94
11 Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 53 42 95
12 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 38 63 101
13 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 45 57 102
14 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 59 44 103
15 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 70 40 110
16 Westmont College Westmont College Warriors 77 46 123
17 Aggies Aggies Aggies 77 66 143
18 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 72 84 156
19 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 75 84 159
20 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 84 81 165
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 1 2 4 5 12 Simone Staff '18
Claire Stivers '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 4 5 2 13 Kristopher Swanson '18 [1-4]
Neil Stapleton '18 [1-2]
Maxwell Mckinney '19 [3-4]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4 6 1 4 15 Charles Eaton Iv '17 [1-4]
Kellie Yamada '16 [1-2]
Cuylar Zimmerman '19 [3-4]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 5 11 1 20 Matthew Hecht '16 [1-4]
Hope Modugno '18 [1-2]
Melissa Schem '18 [3-4]
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros 8 1 3 9 21 Silas Barton '18
Cameron Gibson '19
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 5 9 6 6 26 Maria El-Khazindar '19
Kathryn Booker '19
Vikings Vikings Vikings 9 3 10 7 29
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 15 12 2 3 32 Henrik Bey '17
Katie Hitchcock '16
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 13 8 7 8 36 Ben Brough '19
Grace Carrick '18
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 7 13 8 10 38 Brian Maclean '18
Caressa Brewer '18
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 6 10 13 12 41 David Berry '16
No Show
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 11 11 12 11 45 Nicolas Delfino '16
No Show
Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 16 15 9 13 53
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 10 7 DNF DNS 59 Sunny Scarbrough '17
Anna Rubino '16
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 14 14 DNF DNS 70 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19
Laura Roudebush '18
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 12 18 DNS DNS 72 Melissa Shadden '17
Jacqueline Rasch Castillo '18
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 17 16 DNS DNS 75 Alexander Smith '18
Sierra Apillanes '19
Aggies Aggies Aggies 18 17 DNF DNS 77
Westmont College Westmont College Warriors DNS DNF DNF 14 77 No Show
No Show
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins DNS DNF DNS DNS 84 No Show
Kinsey Cohen '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1 1 3 6 Sterling Henken '18
Amelia Anderson '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 3 2 1 9 Nicolai Sponholtz '19
Katheryn Bell '16
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4 2 5 2 13 Soren Wilde '19
Annika Garrett '19
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 4 7 4 17 Martina Sly '19
Meg Gerli '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 5 5 4 6 20 John Coakley '16 [1-4]
Peter Wong '18 [1-2]
Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [3-4]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 6 6 3 7 22 Ginger Luckey '16
Madisson Thomas '17
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros 7 7 9 5 28 Matthew Long '20
Charot Bahler '18
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 8 9 8 12 37 David Cornella '17
Kathryn Cornella '16
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 16 8 6 10 40 Leah Ford '19
Kylie Sullivan '17
Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 10 12 12 8 42
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 11 11 11 11 44 Alex Newton '16
Brooke Scholl '16
Westmont College Westmont College Warriors 9 15 13 9 46 Kalvyn Ngo '17
Mindy Chow '16
Vikings Vikings Vikings 13 10 10 16 49
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 12 14 14 13 53 Ted Alley '16
Adele Horbulyk '16
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 15 13 15 14 57 Brett Farrell '17
Hayley Chong '17
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 14 16 16 17 63 Philip Tagatac '17
Ali Sepasyar '17
Aggies Aggies Aggies 17 17 17 15 66
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 18 DNS DNS DNS 81 Joshua Steward '17
Andrew Clements '17
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos DNF DNS DNS DNS 84 Robbie Culkin '19
William Pollard '18
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils DNF DNF DNS DNS 84 Conor Mcgee '17
Daniel Rust '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils39393939
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears23232323
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang3333
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins9999
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers7777
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows35353535
Santa Barbara City CollegeSanta Barbara City College Vaqueros61616161
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos19191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans37373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal21212121
AggiesAggies Aggies47474747
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters25252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins27272727
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons29292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women32323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos31313131
Banana Slug'sBanana Slug's Banana Slug's33333333
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes86868686
VikingsVikings Vikings87878787
Westmont CollegeWestmont College Warriors55555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils39393939
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears23232323
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang3333
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins9999
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers7777
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows35353535
Santa Barbara City CollegeSanta Barbara City College Vaqueros61616161
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos19191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans37373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal21212121
AggiesAggies Aggies47474747
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters25252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins27272727
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons29292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women32323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos31313131
Banana Slug'sBanana Slug's Banana Slug's33333333
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes86868686
VikingsVikings Vikings87878787
Westmont CollegeWestmont College Warriors55555555
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Alexander Smith '18 Sierra Apillanes '19
Sun Devils Conor Mcgee '17 Daniel Rust '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Ben Brough '19 Grace Carrick '18
Mustang David Cornella '17 Kathryn Cornella '16
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands No Show Kinsey Cohen '17
Dolphins Joshua Steward '17 Andrew Clements '17
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Sunny Scarbrough '17 Anna Rubino '16
49ers Alex Newton '16 Brooke Scholl '16
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Silas Barton '18 Cameron Gibson '19
Vaqueros Matthew Long '20 Charot Bahler '18
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Melissa Shadden '17 Jacqueline Rasch Castillo '18
Broncos Robbie Culkin '19 William Pollard '18
Stanford University Stanford University Maria El-Khazindar '19 Kathryn Booker '19
Cardinal Martina Sly '19 Meg Gerli '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Henrik Bey '17 Katie Hitchcock '16
Bears Nicolai Sponholtz '19 Katheryn Bell '16
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Brian Maclean '18 Caressa Brewer '18
Anteaters Philip Tagatac '17 Ali Sepasyar '17
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19 Laura Roudebush '18
Bruins Leah Ford '19 Kylie Sullivan '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Nicolas Delfino '16 No Show
Tritons Brett Farrell '17 Hayley Chong '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Simone Staff '18 Claire Stivers '18
Gaucho Women Ginger Luckey '16 Madisson Thomas '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Kristopher Swanson '18 [1-4] Neil Stapleton '18 [1-2]
Maxwell Mckinney '19 [3-4]
Gauchos Sterling Henken '18 Amelia Anderson '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Charles Eaton Iv '17 [1-4] Kellie Yamada '16 [1-2]
Cuylar Zimmerman '19 [3-4]
Rainbows Soren Wilde '19 Annika Garrett '19
University of Southern California University of Southern California Matthew Hecht '16 [1-4] Hope Modugno '18 [1-2]
Melissa Schem '18 [3-4]
Trojans John Coakley '16 [1-4] Peter Wong '18 [1-2]
Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [3-4]
University of Victoria University of Victoria David Berry '16 No Show
Vikes Ted Alley '16 Adele Horbulyk '16
Westmont College Westmont College No Show No Show
Warriors Kalvyn Ngo '17 Mindy Chow '16

Conditions — 11/14/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 31%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.8 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From SSE (167°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity31% Pressure1013.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · NW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Santa Barbara: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.05 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.38 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →