Stanford University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–6 (74%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 17–6 against 17.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.86 | 2.85 | 10–4 | 10.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.84 | 1.70 | 7–2 | 7.9 | −1.14 | 0.7 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Pacific Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.8 | 2.17 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | 3.30 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.0 | 2.34 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.5 | 3.73 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.8 | 2.99 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | 3.79 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.7 | 2.92 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.1 | 3.21 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.7 | 3.37 |
| St Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.3 | 2.12 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.1 | 3.56 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.7 | 3.68 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 4.15 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.6 | 3.97 |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.5 | 2.90 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship - 2 Div | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 2.95 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 3.02 |
| 2015 Women's PCC's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.3 | 3.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
