Duplin Women's Team Race

HostTufts
Date03/25/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–2
2	Brown University	Bears	11–3
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	10–4
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	9–5
5	Harvard University	Crimson	6–8
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–8
7	Boston College	Eagles	6–6
8	University of Rhode Island	Rams	4–8
9	Fordham University	Rams	1–11
10	University of Vermont	Catamounts	1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,016 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 66 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.387 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.58 ± 0.25: an orderly event, more orderly than 96% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	2	9.80 school +0.17	Katharina (Kb) Knapp / Claire Huebner 3.11 Louisa Nordstrom / Graceann Nicolosi Christine Klingler / Kira Woods	74%	12–2 (86%)	+1.7
2	Brown University Bears	1	9.89 school +0.20	Hannah Steadman / Maxine De Havenon Lindsey Baab / Abigayle Konys 3.16 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick / Haley Carter 3.39 9–3 Sophie Hibben / Haley Carter 2.61 2–0	77%	11–3 (79%)	+0.2
3	Stanford University Cardinal	3	9.67 school +0.43	Julia Lambert / Mary Vangelos 3.17 Maeve White / Meg Gerli 3.01 Martina Sly / Madeline Bubb 2.86	72%	10–4 (71%)	−0.0
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	8.97	Margaret Kilvert / Lisa Genthner 2.79 Emma White / Peninah Benjamin 3.07 Audrey Giblin / Sophia Diserio	57%	9–5 (64%)	+1.1
5	Harvard University Crimson	6	8.17 school −0.11	Taylor Ladd / Kirstin Anderson 2.89 Taylor Gavula / Amalia Frohna 2.47 Lucy Wilmot / Jessica Williams	38%	6–8 (43%)	+0.6
6	Tufts University Jumbos	7	8.06 school +0.12, home +0.24	Charlotte Lenz / Julia Fuller Maryclaire Kiernan / Marisa Permatteo 2.97 Molly Pleskus / Sabina Van Mell 2.65	36%	6–8 (43%)	+0.9
7	Boston College Eagles	5	8.25 school +0.21	Madeleine Loosbrock / Alice Bohan Allyson Donahue / Kyla Maclennan 3.57 Lily Mcgrath / Megan Bamford 2.93	54%	6–6 (50%)	−0.5
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	8	7.35	Delaney Bamford / Cecilia Schneider Sarah Hermus / Marisa Decollibus 2.91 Kimberly Morecraft / Alyssa Hall	35%	4–8 (33%)	−0.2
9	Fordham University Rams	10	6.82	Adelaide Ferguson / Annika Ekholm 2.61 Grace Howie / Gabrielle Mascio 2.03 Amanda Stapp / Elizabeth Foulston	24%	1–11 (8%)	−1.9
10	University of Vermont Catamounts	9	6.88	Samantha Brown / Elizabeth Holiman 1.44 Lindsay Doyle / Lilla Salvesen 2.96 Annie Spence / Victoria Pyne Mercier	24%	1–11 (8%)	−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	9.80	10.67	12–2	10.3	+0.87	1.0	22%
4	Dartmouth College	8.97	9.38	9–5	7.9	+0.41	0.3	37%
6	Tufts University	8.06	8.42	6–8	5.1	+0.36	0.2	39%
5	Harvard University	8.17	8.41	6–8	5.4	+0.24	0.1	46%
2	Brown University	9.89	9.99	11–3	10.8	+0.10	0.0	60%
3	Stanford University	9.67	9.66	10–4	10.0	−0.01	0.0	64%
8	University of Rhode Island	7.35	7.26	4–8	4.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
7	Boston College	8.25	8.01	6–6	6.5	−0.24	0.1	76%
9	Fordham University	6.82	5.47	1–11	2.8	−1.35	1.6	97%
10	University of Vermont	6.88	5.49	1–11	2.9	−1.39	1.7	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Katharina (Kb) Knapp	Yale University	3.11	3.98	12–2	10.3	+0.87	1.0	22%
Margaret Kilvert	Dartmouth College	2.79	3.19	9–5	7.9	+0.41	0.3	37%
Audrey Giblin	Dartmouth College	2.82	3.23	9–5	7.9	+0.41	0.3	37%
Maryclaire Kiernan	Tufts University	2.97	3.33	6–8	5.1	+0.36	0.2	39%
Taylor Ladd	Harvard University	2.89	3.13	6–8	5.4	+0.24	0.1	46%
Taylor Gavula	Harvard University	2.47	2.71	6–8	5.4	+0.24	0.1	46%
Lindsey Baab	Brown University	3.16	3.26	11–3	10.8	+0.10	0.0	60%
Julia Lambert	Stanford University	3.17	3.16	10–4	10.0	−0.01	0.0	64%
Maeve White	Stanford University	3.01	3.00	10–4	10.0	−0.01	0.0	64%
Martina Sly	Stanford University	2.86	2.85	10–4	10.0	−0.01	0.0	64%
Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick	Brown University	3.39	3.38	9–3	9.0	−0.01	0.0	66%
Sarah Hermus	University of Rhode Island	2.91	2.82	4–8	4.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Kimberly Morecraft	University of Rhode Island	1.59	1.50	4–8	4.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Madeleine Loosbrock	Boston College	1.47	1.23	6–6	6.5	−0.24	0.1	76%
Allyson Donahue	Boston College	3.57	3.33	6–6	6.5	−0.24	0.1	76%
Adelaide Ferguson	Fordham University	2.61	1.26	1–11	2.8	−1.35	1.6	97%
Amanda Stapp	Fordham University	1.79	0.43	1–11	2.8	−1.35	1.6	97%
Lindsay Doyle	University of Vermont	2.96	1.57	1–11	2.9	−1.39	1.7	97%
Annie Spence	University of Vermont	2.25	0.86	1–11	2.9	−1.39	1.7	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Harvard University	84%
1	2	Tufts University	Fordham University	79%
1	3	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	85%
1	4	Brown University	University of Vermont	96%
1	5	Yale University	Boston College	82%
1	6	Harvard University	Fordham University	80%
1	7	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	68%
1	8	Brown University	Tufts University	89%
1	9	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	93%
1	10	Boston College	University of Vermont	82%
1	11	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	90%
1	12	Brown University	Harvard University	87%
1	13	Yale University	Stanford University	54%
1	14	Tufts University	University of Vermont	76%
1	15	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	73%
1	16	Dartmouth College	Brown University	26%	upset
1	17	Yale University	Fordham University	95%
1	18	Harvard University	University of Vermont	78%
1	19	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	91%
1	20	Tufts University	Boston College	44%	upset
1	21	Brown University	Yale University	55%
1	22	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	89%
1	23	University of Rhode Island	Fordham University	63%
1	24	Harvard University	Tufts University	52%
1	25	Stanford University	Boston College	80%
1	26	Yale University	University of Vermont	95%
1	27	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	86%
1	28	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	29%	upset
1	29	Stanford University	Fordham University	94%
1	30	Harvard University	Boston College	48%	upset
1	31	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	62%
1	32	Yale University	Tufts University	85%
1	33	Brown University	Stanford University	58%
1	34	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	69%
1	35	Boston College	Fordham University	80%
1	36	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	66%
1	37	Stanford University	University of Vermont	94%
1	38	Yale University	Harvard University	83%
1	39	Brown University	Fordham University	91%
1	40	Dartmouth College	Boston College	68%
1	41	Tufts University	Stanford University	17%	upset
1	42	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	68%
1	43	University of Vermont	Fordham University	51%
1	44	Yale University	Dartmouth College	69%
1	45	Brown University	Boston College	85%
2	52	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	66%
2	53	Brown University	Harvard University	85%
2	54	Yale University	Tufts University	84%
2	55	Stanford University	Harvard University	81%
2	56	Yale University	Dartmouth College	68%
2	57	Brown University	Tufts University	87%
2	58	Yale University	Harvard University	82%
2	59	Stanford University	Brown University	42%	upset
2	60	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	71%
2	61	Brown University	Yale University	55%
2	62	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	69%
2	63	Stanford University	Tufts University	82%
2	64	Dartmouth College	Brown University	28%	upset
2	65	Yale University	Stanford University	52%
2	66	Harvard University	Tufts University	53%
3	46	Boston College	Fordham University	79%
3	47	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	62%
3	48	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	68%
3	49	Fordham University	University of Vermont	49%	upset
3	50	University of Rhode Island	Fordham University	63%
3	51	Boston College	University of Vermont	78%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Cardinal	Green	Crimson	Jumbos	Eagles	Rams	Rams	Catamounts
Yale University Bulldogs	8–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	8–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–3	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–3	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Cardinal	Green	Crimson	Jumbos
Yale University Bulldogs	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	3–2	W	✕	L	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Rams	Rams	Catamounts
Boston College Eagles	3–0	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–2	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6 DSQ
2	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
3	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
4	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
6	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
7	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
8	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
10	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
11	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
12	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
14	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
16	Big Green	1-5-6	def.	Bears	2-3-4 DSQ
17	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
18	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
19	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
20	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
22	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
23	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6 DSQ
24	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
28	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
29	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
30	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
31	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
33	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
34	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
35	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
36	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
39	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
40	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
41	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
42	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
43	Catamounts	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
44	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
45	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
52	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
53	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
54	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
56	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
57	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
59	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
60	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
61	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
62	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
63	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
64	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
65	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
66	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
46	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
47	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
48	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
49	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
50	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
51	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christine Klingler '20 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 Louisa Nordstrom '20	Kira Woods '19 Claire Huebner '18 Graceann Nicolosi '20
Brown University	Bears	Hannah Steadman '20 Lindsey Baab '18 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 Sophie Hibben '19	Maxine De Havenon '19 Abigayle Konys '19 Haley Carter '17
Stanford University	Cardinal	Julia Lambert '18 Maeve White '17 Martina Sly '19	Mary Vangelos '17 Meg Gerli '19 Madeline Bubb '20
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Audrey Giblin '20 Emma White '19 Margaret Kilvert '18	Sophia Diserio '18 Peninah Benjamin '20 Lisa Genthner '19
Harvard University	Crimson	Lucy Wilmot '20 Taylor Gavula '19 Taylor Ladd '18	Jessica Williams '20 Amalia Frohna '20 Kirstin Anderson '18
Tufts University	Jumbos	Charlotte Lenz '20 Maryclaire Kiernan '17 Molly Pleskus '18	Julia Fuller '17 Marisa Permatteo '19 Sabina Van Mell '19
Boston College	Eagles	Allyson Donahue '17 Lily Mcgrath '18 Madeleine Loosbrock '17	Kyla Maclennan '18 Megan Bamford '18 Alice Bohan '18
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Delaney Bamford '20 Kimberly Morecraft '18 Sarah Hermus '18	Cecilia Schneider '20 Alyssa Hall '20 Marisa Decollibus '17
Fordham University	Rams	Adelaide Ferguson '17 Amanda Stapp '18 Grace Howie '20	Annika Ekholm '20 Elizabeth Foulston '17 Gabrielle Mascio '18
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Annie Spence '20 Lindsay Doyle '18 Samantha Brown '19	Victoria Pyne Mercier '19 Lilla Salvesen '18 Elizabeth Holiman '20

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 90% · Pressure 1024.5 hPa

Temperature

39°F

↑ 40°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.9 kn

avg · max 6.1 kn

Gusts to 16.1 kn

From NNE (22°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1024.5 hPa Rain0.23 in Snow0.08 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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