Harvard University '19
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.57 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 17 | Fall 2018 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.51 (fleet 3.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–43 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 7–13 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 9–15 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (68 matches) the record is 25–43 against 30.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.86 | 1.53 | 7–13 | 11.4 | −1.33 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 2.85 | 8–7 | 7.1 | +0.35 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2018-03-04 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 0.76 | 1–8 | 3.3 | −1.77 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.47 | 2.71 | 6–8 | 5.4 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 1.87 | 1.73 | 3–7 | 3.2 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 20 | 35% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.3 | 3.94 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.2 | 4.15 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.2 | 3.57 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.0 | 2.92 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.3 | 3.26 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.7 | 3.36 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.1 | 4.10 |
| 2019 HSTAR | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.6 | 3.53 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.3 | 2.84 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.4 | 3.08 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.0 | 2.56 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.4 | 3.28 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.0 | 0.70 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.7 | 3.70 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.3 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.7 | 3.78 |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.3 | 3.77 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.5 | 2.31 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.0 | 1.36 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 3.38 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.0 | 2.70 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.7 | 3.14 |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.9 | 3.19 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.0 | 2.58 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.6 | 3.53 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.5 | 2.54 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.2 | 2.43 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 4.05 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.3 | 2.77 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.3 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 2.71 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.7 | 3.00 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.2 | 3.14 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | 3.00 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.2 | 3.02 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.7 | 3.10 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.8 | 3.09 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 3.03 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.9 | 2.80 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.4 | 3.41 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.3 | 2.69 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.0 | 2.55 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 3.10 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.2 | 3.25 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.3 | 2.71 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.6 | 2.56 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.4 | 2.01 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 3.28 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.4 | 1.96 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.3 | 2.33 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.4 | 1.74 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.6 | 2.19 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | 1.78 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 2.81 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
