Navigate

2019 HSTAR

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 5 19 19
2 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 19 19
3 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 13 27 27
4 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 7 28 28
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 14 29 29
6 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 9 30 30
7 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 10 33 33
8 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 6 33 33
9 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 8 39 39
10 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 11 44 44
11 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 47 47
12 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 53 53
13 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 12 59 59
14 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 3 71 71
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 5 4 2 7 1 5 19 Nick Sertl '18
Christine Gosioco '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 10 3 1 3 2 19 Jonas Nelle '22
Michelle Konstadt '10
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 13 9 9 4 4 1 27 Brian Drumm '15
Julia Lord '17
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 7 7 1 3 2 DNF 28 Eli Burnes '22
Daphne Lyman '05
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 14 5 10 2 5 7 29 Nicholas Karnovsky '19
Sydney Karnovsky '16
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 9 1 5 8 12 4 30 Michael Drumm '15
Kevin Coakley '18
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 10 2 7 6 9 9 33 Taylor Gavula '19
Jessica Williams '20
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 6 6 12 5 7 3 33 Andrew Puopolo '19
Tess Avery '21
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 8 8 6 13 6 6 39 Emma Kaneti '22
Lisa Van Der Sluijs '21
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 11 3 8 10 8 DNF 44 Henry Burnes '22
Catherine Tang '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 12 4 12 11 8 47 Elizabeth Powers '10
Kristen Lynch '07
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 11 11 11 10 10 53 Francis Doyle '22
Kendra Heredia '22
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 12 13 13 9 13 11 59 Matthew Dickey '22
Priscilla Karnovsky '05
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 3 14 14 14 14 DNF 71 Ogden Ross '05
Gayatri Balasubramanian '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 122222
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 101313131313
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 111414141414
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 121616161616
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 131717171717
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 141818181818
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 233333
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 344444
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 455555
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 566666
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 677777
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 788888
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 899999
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 91111111111

Conditions — 05/18/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover29% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1013.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →