Harvard University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.88 (fleet 1.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–12 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 0–12 against 0.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-24 | BU Team Race | skipper | 0.67 | -2.33 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 1.43 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.2 | 1.64 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.1 | 0.80 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| 2019 HSTAR | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.8 | 1.44 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 19.0 | -0.77 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Matthew Dickey |  Unregistered-NESSA |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
