Harvard University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 (fleet 2.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–26 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 5–5 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 8–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 13–26 against 11.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Hap Moore Trophy | skipper | 2.40 | 4.14 | 5–5 | 2.0 | +1.74 | 4.0 | 2% |
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.44 | 1.76 | 4–10 | 5.9 | −0.68 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.22 | 2.50 | 4–4 | 3.6 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2019-03-03 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.07 | -0.93 | 0–7 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Hap Moore Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 9 | 6.1 | 3.29 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | 0.30 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.3 | 2.99 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.7 | 3.87 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 10.4 | 2.72 |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.9 | 2.18 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| 2019 HSTAR | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 1.91 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts University Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.2 | 0.52 |
| Nickerson Trophy 2018 | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.4 | 3.16 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.6 | 2.29 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.4 | 2.90 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
