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Tufts University Invitational

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 114
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 118
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 133
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 142
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 149
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 152
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 180
8 University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 268
9 Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 283
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 3 7 7 9 1 1 7 8 1 44 Wells Drayton '21
Jessica Friedman '22
Brown University Brown University Bears B 6 3 1 7 6 3 12 5 3 46 Julia Reynolds '22
Juan Briano '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 B 1 1 9 18 5 6 5 1 7 53 Alex Abate '22
Sharon Chen '20
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 B 7 2 6 10 4 4 1 11 9 54 Dana Haig '22
Zoe Lallas '20
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 10 5 2 8 7 2 10 6 6 56 Francis Doyle '22
Lena Episalla '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 2 6 3 1 10 7 8 10 11 58 Jonas Nelle '22
Iulianna Taritsa '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 9 4 10 3 13 10 3 7 4 63 Elena Gonick '20
Kelsey Foster '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 5 10 5 12 9 5 11 9 8 74
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 12 12 13 13 3 9 9 3 2 76 Kyle Nannig '21
Emilia Marino '22
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 A 17 13 12 2 2 14 4 4 12 80 John Piotti '19
Abigail Lee '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 4 9 15 6 12 12 6 12 13 89 Evan Robison '21
Chia-Yun Hu '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 A 16 15 8 11 16 11 2 2 14 95 Lulu Russell '22
Isabelle Yen '21
Brown University Brown University Bears A 8 14 4 4 11 13 17 15 10 96 Aryaman Dutta '22
Justin Chiang '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 11 11 16 5 8 8 15 13 17 104 Peter Gunn '20
Ally Kramer '21
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons A 13 8 18 16 14 15 18 14 5 121 Benjamin Geffken '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Max Godbey '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Max Godbey '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Benjamin Geffken '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers B 18 17 11 14 15 16 14 18 16 139 Wynn Simmons '21
Graham Hughes '20
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers A 14 18 17 17 17 17 13 16 15 144 Brian Hayes '21
Kelsey Black '21
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons B 15 16 14 15 18 18 16 17 18 147 William Emery '20
Mauricio Angelone '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears112233445
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson223344556
University of Massachusetts at BostonUniversity of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons88991010111112
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1334455667
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2445566778
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams9910101111121213
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers556677889
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 16677889910
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2778899101011

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears101011111212131314
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson111112121313141415
University of Massachusetts at BostonUniversity of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons1717181811223
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1121213131414151516
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2131314141515161617
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams18181122334
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers141415151616171718
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 115151616171718181
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2161617171818112

Conditions — 09/09/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1025.6 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.5 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1025.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.28 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →