Tufts University '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 4.92 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.098 rating points from 78 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.11 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 8 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.94 (fleet 2.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–27 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 5–13 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | 3–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 18–27 against 18.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-26 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.38 | 2.19 | 3–5 | 3.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.23 | 1.84 | 2–8 | 2.6 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2018-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 0.53 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −1.88 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.10 | 2.77 | 9–5 | 6.9 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2017-11-04 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.34 | 0.97 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.37 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.28 | 3.36 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.07 | 0.7 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.0 | 2.40 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| URI Spring Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.1 | -1.23 |
| Ewenson Trophy | Crew | B | 9 | 9.7 | — |
| Bowdoin Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 2.33 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 2.96 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.8 | 2.15 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 13.3 | — |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.1 | 2.63 |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.4 | 2.79 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 2.13 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A, B | 3 | 3.0 | 4.29 |
| 2020 Rose Bowl - College | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.3 | 3.03 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 at URI | Crew | B | 9 | 4.1 | — |
| Salve Alymers | Skipper | B | 20 | 4.2 | 1.71 |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.7 | 2.38 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.9 | 3.00 |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A | 7 | 10.9 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts University Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.9 | 1.84 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.9 | 3.22 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 1.82 |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 2.66 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 0.69 |
| Fiske-Harriman-Sleigh Trophy Coed Showcase | Crew | B | 8 | 11.1 | — |
| 2019 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.4 | 3.02 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | C | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Ryan Richards Alumni Regatta | Crew | A, B | 5 | 17.6 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 10 | 3.5 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.8 | 1.67 |
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.1 | 2.34 |
| Central 2 | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.3 | 2.56 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.8 | 1.86 |
| Richard Ross College Bowl 2017 Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 1.24 |
| Protest | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.8 | 1.77 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Lark Invite- Central Series One | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | 0.11 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | B | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Wells Drayton |  Sage Hill School |
'17 |
| ISSA | Wells Drayton |  Mater Dei High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
