Bowdoin Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 75
2 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 84
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 90
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 111
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 123
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 141
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 A 2 1 1 2 9 1 6 1 23 Claire Havig '21
Eliza Jevon '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 1 6 2 1 5 4 2 8 29 Trevor Davis '24
Jessica Friedman '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 A 4 4 3 3 1 9 3 7 34 Samantha Jensen '24
Mallory Hood '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 3 3 9 4 6 7 1 2 35 Wells Drayton '21
Devin Hart '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 A 5 5 4 10 3 8 4 3 42 Jonathan Chance '23
Jillian Galloway '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 6 2 6 5 2 2 12 11 46 Lera Anders '22
Rose O'Neal '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 A 10 9 5 11 8 3 5 4 55 Chloe Holder '23
Madeline Simms '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 B 7 10 7 7 4 6 10 5 56 Amelia Carlson '24
Dorothy Waskow '22
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 B 8 7 8 8 12 5 7 6 61 Christine Reimer '24
Alex Kitay '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 12 8 11 9 7 12 8 9 76 Connor Rosow '24
Adelaide Straub '24
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 B 9 11 12 6 10 10 11 12 81 Preston Anderson '22 [1-5]
Noah Lipnick '21 [6-8]
Elijah Berger '21 [1-5]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 B 11 12 10 12 11 11 9 10 86 Niall Sheridan '23
Sara Morrison '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 111111111
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 222222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 133333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 244444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 355555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 41111111111111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 166666666
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 277777777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 188888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 299999999
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 31010101010101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 41212121212121212

Conditions — 05/01/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1004.0 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.9 kn
avg  ·  max 16.3 kn
Gusts to 37.9 kn
From NW (304°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1004.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bowdoin: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.86 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →