Tufts University '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 70.57 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.105 rating points from 54 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.38 (fleet 3.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 54–86 (39%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 5 | 19–31 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 16–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 18–33 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (140 matches) the record is 54–86 against 51.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 31 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.67 | 1.61 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −1.06 | 0.4 | 95% |
| 2023-04-08 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | -0.25 | 0–14 | 2.9 | ≤−3.00 | 5.0 | >99% |
| 2023-04-01 | Women's Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 5.85 | 9–0 | 8.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 38% |
| 2023-03-25 | Duplin Women’s TR | skipper | 2.64 | 3.77 | 7–7 | 4.5 | +1.13 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.76 | 2.48 | 2–5 | 2.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 2022-10-23 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.77 | 5.77 | 4–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 19% |
| 2022-10-22 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.55 | 4.45 | 12–3 | 6.7 | +1.90 | 6.9 | <1% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 2.31 | 2.06 | 3–13 | 3.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2022-03-26 | Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.37 | 1.95 | 5–9 | 6.2 | −0.43 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 2.91 | 10–11 | 6.8 | +0.84 | 2.0 | 7% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.07 | -0.93 | 0–15 | 5.7 | ≤−3.00 | 10.4 | >99% |
| 2021-05-22 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 1.80 | 2.50 | 1–4 | 0.6 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 53% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Women's Staake Trophy Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 1.04 |
| College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.1 | 3.01 |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.9 | 2.84 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.1 | 3.29 |
| Navy Women's Spring Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.3 | 4.03 |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Duplin Women’s TR Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship, Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.0 | 2.62 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 2.96 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.3 | 3.37 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 3.97 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.6 | 3.35 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 4 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.2 | 3.45 |
| Seahawk Women's Team Race InterConference Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 15.6 | 1.65 |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.8 | 2.95 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 19% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.0 | 2.95 |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 48% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 3.23 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.9 | 2.02 |
| Norman G. Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.4 | 2.52 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.7 | 3.00 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.6 | 2.87 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| 2021 College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.0 | 2.58 |
| New England Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.0 | 0.09 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| CGA Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 18.1 | 1.06 |
| Bowdoin Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 1.07 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.7 | 0.45 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.0 | 2.55 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 3.28 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.8 | 2.01 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.1 | 2.67 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 3.18 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.0 | 4.56 |
| Fairfield Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 1.52 |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | B | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Chuck Fontaine Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.8 | -0.44 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.1 | 2.31 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Chloe Holder |  Redwood High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
