| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green 1 | 3–2 |
| 4 | |
Dartmouth College | Big Green 2 | 2–3 |
| 5 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 1–4 |
| 6 | |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,736 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 15 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.464 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.24 ± 0.46: a typical event, more orderly than 21% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 10.23 | 13.23 | 5–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 21% |
| 4 | Dartmouth College Big Green 2 | 7.00 | 8.59 | 2–3 | 1.0 | +1.58 | 1.2 | 22% |
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 9.70 | 10.63 | 4–1 | 3.4 | +0.93 | 0.4 | 44% |
| 5 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 6.59 | 7.28 | 1–4 | 0.6 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 3 | Dartmouth College Big Green 1 | 10.62 | 8.94 | 3–2 | 4.2 | −1.67 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 6 | Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 8.24 | 5.24 | 0–5 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 4.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Cartwright | Roger Williams University | 3.53 | 6.53 | 5–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 21% |
| Aidan Hoogland | Roger Williams University | 3.38 | 6.38 | 5–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 21% |
| Alex Fasolo | Tufts University | 3.00 | 6.00 | 4–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 22% |
| James Paul | Dartmouth College | 2.33 | 3.91 | 2–3 | 1.0 | +1.58 | 1.2 | 22% |
| Austen Freda | Tufts University | 3.07 | 3.96 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +0.89 | 0.4 | 46% |
| Abbie Carlson | Tufts University | 2.25 | 2.94 | 1–4 | 0.6 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 53% |
| Annika Fedde | Tufts University | 1.94 | 2.64 | 1–4 | 0.6 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 53% |
| Charlie Hibben | Tufts University | 2.99 | 2.21 | 2–1 | 2.3 | −0.78 | 0.2 | 93% |
| Max Clapp | Dartmouth College | 2.95 | 1.28 | 3–2 | 4.2 | −1.67 | 1.5 | 98% |
| George Higham | Roger Williams University | 2.65 | -0.35 | 0–5 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 4.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 5–5 | ✕ | W | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 5–5 | L | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | L |
| Dartmouth College Big Green 1 | 5–5 | W | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green 2 | 5–5 | W | L | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 5–5 | L | ✕ | W | W | ✕ | L |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 5–5 | ✕ | W | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Big Green 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Big Green 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Big Green 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Big Green 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Big Green 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green 1 | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | Aidan Hoogland '24 Riley Read '22 Spencer Cartwright '22 |
Molly Matthews '23 Annika Irene '23 Jaqueline Frode '22 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Alex Fasolo '22 Austen Freda '21 Charlie Hibben '22 Samuel Merson '22 |
Juliana Testa '21 Lindsay Powers '21 Celia Byrne '24 Ann Sheridan '22 |
|
Dartmouth College | Big Green 1 | Maddie Hawkins '24 Max Clapp '21 Robert Bragg '23 |
Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Joshua Cherner '21 Drew Clutterbuck '23 |
|
Dartmouth College | Big Green 2 | James Paul '23 Payton Thompson '23 Taylor Eastman '24 |
Madeleine Sharp '22 Carlota Hopkins Guerra '22 Eliza Crocker '23 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Abbie Carlson '22 Annika Fedde '23 Chloe Holder '23 |
Jessica Friedman '22 Devin Hart '23 Mallory Hood '22 Rose O'Neal '22 Jacob Whitney '21 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | George Higham '23 John Walton '22 William Bailey '24 |
Hank Bailey '24 Grace Woodcock '23 Katharine Benagh '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
