Tufts University '21
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.30 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 21 | Spring 2018 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.30 (fleet 3.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 47–39 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 4–3 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 20–17 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 7–0 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | 3–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (86 matches) the record is 47–39 against 41.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.7). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-02 | 2021 College Sailing Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.09 | 2.44 | 1–2 | 1.5 | −0.65 | 0.2 | 87% |
| 2021-05-22 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 3.07 | 3.96 | 3–1 | 2.4 | +0.89 | 0.4 | 46% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.89 | 3.32 | 11–9 | 9.5 | +0.43 | 0.5 | 29% |
| 2020-02-29 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.82 | 3.50 | 9–8 | 6.8 | +0.68 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 2019-10-26 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 2.78 | 3–5 | 3.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.65 | 5.65 | 7–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 8% |
| 2018-10-28 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.70 | 0.82 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −1.88 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.36 | 3.03 | 9–5 | 6.9 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2017-11-04 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.59 | 1.22 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.37 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.43 | 3.50 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.07 | 0.7 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 2.99 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| RWU Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 3.95 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.9 | 4.33 |
| Coed New England Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.2 | 0.73 |
| 2021 College Sailing Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.8 | 1.95 |
| NEISA Showcase Qualifier | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 2.46 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.3 | 3.26 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 4.7 | 3.00 |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.1 | 2.04 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.5 | 1.79 |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.5 | 2.61 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 2.93 |
| Coast Guard J/70 Open Keelboat | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.8 | 0.03 |
| Central 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.4 | 2.14 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy 2017 | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 3.46 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Lark Invite- Central Series One | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | 1.31 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.5 | 2.11 |
| J70 Tuesday Invite - 1 Keelboat | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.0 | 2.30 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.9 | 1.84 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Austen Freda |  Christchurch School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
