Dark of Night Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbabies 53
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 62
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 67
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbutts 80
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumblitty 93
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 143
7 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 154
8 Falcons Falcons Falcons 186
9 Saints Saints Saints 228
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya A 3 1 5 3 7 2 21 Elena Gonick '20 [1-6]
Michaela Morris '20 [1-2]
Dorothy Waskow '22 [3-4]
Margo Muyres '22 [5-6]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbabies B 1 10 3 2 5 1 22 Charlie Hibben '22 [1-2]
Alex Fasolo '22 [3-6]
Connor Sheridan '22 [1-2]
Vinicius Freitas '22 [3-6]
Brown University Brown University Bears A 5 7 1 7 1 3 24 Gabriel Hannon '20
Madeleine Montagner '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbabies A 10 3 4 1 4 9 31 Ansgar Jordan '22 [1, 4]
George Sidamon-Eristoff '22 [2-3]
Colin Ray '22 [5-6]
George Sidamon-Eristoff '22 [1, 4]
Ansgar Jordan '22 [2-3]
Mo Liu '22 [5-6]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbutts B 4 4 8 5 8 8 37 Evan Robison '21 [1-2]
Matthew Galbraith '21 [3-4]
Bowton Eaves '22 [5-6]
Jacob Whitney '21 [1-2]
Maria Brush '21 [3-4]
Robert Bartlett '21 [5-6]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya B 8 5 9 12 3 4 41 Lera Anders '22
Hailey Mckelvie '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbutts A 2 2 12 4 11 12 43 Lindsay Powers '21 [1-2]
Wells Drayton '21 [3-4]
Austen Freda '21 [5-6]
Maria Brush '21 [1-2]
Lindsay Powers '21 [3-6]
Brown University Brown University Bears B 11 11 7 6 2 6 43 Blaire Mccarthy '23
Catherine Mcclenahan '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumblitty A 9 6 2 8 9 10 44 John Duncan '19
Andrew Savage '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 6 9 6 9 10 5 45 Ben Palmer '22
Sumner Strumph '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumblitty B 7 8 11 10 6 7 49 Sabina Van Mell '19
Kahler Newsham '19
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards A 12 13 10 14 12 13 74 John Holt '22
Kathryn Dechambeau '22
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards B 15 14 14 13 13 11 80 Jack Eddy '21 [1-6]
Nick Ferrara '22 [1-4]
Erin Lynch '20 [5-6]
Falcons Falcons Falcons B 14 12 15 11 DNS DNS 90
Falcons Falcons Falcons A 16 15 16 16 14 DNS 96
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 13 DNF 13 15 DNS DNS 98 William Crane '21
Bridget Maguire '22
Saints Saints Saints A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114
Saints Saints Saints B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
FalconsFalcons Falcons111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears222222
SaintsSaints Saints333333
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbabies888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumblitty555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbutts777777
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
FalconsFalcons Falcons101010101010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears111111111111
SaintsSaints Saints121212121212
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbabies171717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya151515151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumblitty141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbutts161616161616
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards181818181818

Conditions — 10/25/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1015.6 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 14.3 kn
Gusts to 28.4 kn
From WNW (303°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1015.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.46 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →