Tufts University '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 78.07 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.106 rating points from 77 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.52 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 14 | Fall 2016 |
| Keelboat | 1.31 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 12 | Spring 2019 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.28 (fleet 3.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 77–55 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 5 | 49–21 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 19–15 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (132 matches) the record is 77–55 against 79.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.72 | 1.81 | 5–5 | 6.6 | −0.91 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2022-04-02 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.78 | 1.77 | 15–6 | 18.1 | −1.01 | 2.4 | 98% |
| 2022-03-26 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 3.76 | 15–1 | 14.0 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 35% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.94 | 3.54 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.60 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2022-03-05 | Hap Moore | skipper | 2.91 | 2.57 | 8–8 | 9.1 | −0.34 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2021-10-30 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.93 | 2.29 | 4–5 | 5.2 | −0.63 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2021-05-14 | Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | skipper | 2.67 | 2.84 | 3–6 | 2.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.25 | 2.69 | 11–9 | 9.5 | +0.43 | 0.5 | 29% |
| 2020-02-29 | Hap Moore Trophy | skipper | 2.21 | 2.80 | 8–6 | 6.4 | +0.59 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.24 | 1.85 | 2–8 | 2.6 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| Hap Moore | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.9 | 2.94 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 4.5 | 4.00 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.3 | 3.46 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.1 | 2.69 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.9 | 2.66 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.6 | 3.78 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.7 | 4.40 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.1 | 3.65 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| URI Spring Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.3 | 1.51 |
| Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Hap Moore Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| NEISA Showcase Qualifier | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.6 | 2.02 |
| NEISA Match Race Championship, Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Harman Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 3.5 | — |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.0 | 0.24 |
| J-70 Spring Open Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.6 | — |
| J-70 Open Keelboat | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.0 | 0.01 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| McGill Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.6 | 2.01 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 5.5 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Connor Sheridan |  Lake Forest High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
