Hap Moore

HostConnecticut College
Date03/05/2022
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–3
2	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	12–4
3	Connecticut College	Camels 1	11–5
4	University of Rhode Island	Rams	8–8
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–8
6	Boston University	Terriers	8–8
7	Yale University	Bulldogs	7–9
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	4–12
9	Connecticut College	Camels 2	1–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 72 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.541 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	9.01 school +0.35	Riley Read / Carly Kiss 2.83 Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene John Walton / Jaqueline Frode 3.07	67%	13–3 (81%)	+2.2
2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7	8.10 school +0.14	Thibault Antonietti / Hattie Slayton Ellie Maus / Meghan Gonzalez 2.65 Christopher Lukens / Timmy Gee	47%	12–4 (75%)	+4.5
3	Connecticut College Camels 1	1	9.89 school +0.32, home +0.35	Thomas Whittemore / Alexandra Tillinghast 3.24 9–5 Cj Mckenna / Cecilia Bohan 3.30 11–3 Walter Henry / Eloise (Ellie) Pieper 2.94 8–4 William Bedford / Jean-Michel Bus 2.49 4–2 William Bedford / Eloise (Ellie) Pieper 2.55 1–1	84%	11–5 (69%)	−2.4
4	University of Rhode Island Rams	5	8.33 school −0.25	Aidan Naughton / Kevin Stamp 3.29 Joshua Bartoszuk / Sadie Thomas 2.31 Parker Colantuono / Clare Laroche 2.91	52%	8–8 (50%)	−0.4
5	Tufts University Jumbos	3	8.48	Connor Sheridan / Harper Mckerrow 2.91 Trevor Davis / Henry Tindall 2.97 Patrick Mulcahy / Cali Salinas 2.56 6–6 Bryan Trammell / Cali Salinas 2.35 2–2	57%	8–8 (50%)	−1.1
6	Boston University Terriers	4	8.48 school −0.05	Noah Robitshek / Catherine Shakin 2.80 Micky Munns / Matthew Hamelsky Tyler Mowry / Carolyn Kravets 2.99	56%	8–8 (50%)	−1.0
7	Yale University Bulldogs	6	8.34 school +0.22	Nicholas Davies / Allison Rice 2.93 2–6 Mateo Farina / Allison Rice 3–3 Nicholas Davies / Alexandra Contomichalos 2.96 4–2 Christophe Chaumont / Alexandra Contomichalos 2.50 3–3 Sam Tobin / Teddy Horangic 2.38 3–3 Nathan Sih / Jessi Avila-Shah 2–2 Nathan Sih / Teddy Horangic 2–0 Christophe Chaumont / Jessi Avila-Shah 2.44 2–0 Mateo Farina / Jessi Avila-Shah 0–2 Sam Tobin / Alexandra Contomichalos 2.44 0–2 Christophe Chaumont / Sydney Zoehrer 2.51 0–2 Sam Tobin / Sydney Zoehrer 2.46 0–2	52%	7–9 (44%)	−1.3
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	7.03	Connell Phillipps / Maura Duval 2.61 Ryan Hamilton / Mallory Stafford 2.05 3–11 Nicholas Salvesen / Caroline James 2.34 3–11 Calvin Lamosse / Mallory Stafford 1–1 Christian Cushman / Caroline James 1–1	24%	4–12 (25%)	+0.1
9	Connecticut College Camels 2	9	5.97 school +0.32, home +0.35	Andrew Powers / Ashley Breyer 1.89 1–11 Charles Bresnahan / Ruth Reischmann 1–11 Ryan Mckinney / Renee Smith 1–7 Harris Padegs / Margaret Benson 2.04 0–6 Ryan Mckinney / Clifton Carragher 0–4 Fritz Baldauf / Abigail Lenox 1.85 0–4 Harris Padegs / Clifton Carragher 2.04 0–2	10%	1–15 (6%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8.10	9.56	12–4	7.4	+1.45	4.6	1%
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	9.01	9.92	13–3	10.8	+0.91	1.4	15%
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	7.03	7.09	4–12	3.9	+0.05	0.0	58%
4	University of Rhode Island Rams	8.33	8.21	8–8	8.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
6	Boston University Terriers	8.48	8.16	8–8	9.0	−0.32	0.2	81%
5	Tufts University Jumbos	8.48	8.14	8–8	9.1	−0.34	0.3	82%
7	Yale University Bulldogs	8.34	7.93	7–9	8.3	−0.41	0.4	84%
9	Connecticut College Camels 2	5.97	5.39	1–15	1.7	−0.59	0.3	84%
3	Connecticut College Camels 1	9.89	8.96	11–5	13.4	−0.94	1.8	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	2.03	3.48	12–4	7.4	+1.45	4.6	1%
Ryan Mckinney	Connecticut College	1.61	1.83	1–11	0.8	+0.22	0.0	58%
Bryan Trammell	Tufts University	2.35	2.50	2–2	1.9	+0.15	0.0	71%
Charles Bresnahan	Connecticut College	1.18	1.18	1–11	1.0	−0.00	0.0	67%
Aidan Naughton	University of Rhode Island	3.29	3.18	8–8	8.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
Joshua Bartoszuk	University of Rhode Island	2.31	2.20	8–8	8.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
Mateo Farina	Yale University	2.56	2.24	3–5	3.6	−0.33	0.1	79%
Patrick Mulcahy	Tufts University	2.56	2.09	6–6	7.2	−0.47	0.4	86%
Andrew Powers	Connecticut College	1.89	1.41	1–11	1.5	−0.47	0.2	81%
Nicholas Davies	Yale University	2.93	2.36	6–8	7.6	−0.58	0.7	90%
Sam Tobin	Yale University	2.38	1.51	3–7	4.7	−0.87	1.0	94%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	3.24	2.25	9–5	11.5	−0.99	1.9	98%
William Bedford	Connecticut College	2.49	1.38	5–3	6.6	−1.11	1.3	97%
Walter Henry	Connecticut College	2.94	1.67	8–4	10.4	−1.28	2.4	99%
Fritz Baldauf	Connecticut College	1.85	-1.15	0–4	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos	57%
1	2	Connecticut College Camels 1	University of Vermont Catamounts	96%
1	3	University of Rhode Island Rams	Connecticut College Camels 2	95%
1	4	Yale University Bulldogs	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	70%
1	5	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers	54%
1	6	Connecticut College Camels 1	Roger Williams University Hawks	79%
1	7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Connecticut College Camels 2	83%
1	8	Yale University Bulldogs	University of Vermont Catamounts	82%
1	9	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	63%
1	10	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Rhode Island Rams	56%
1	11	Connecticut College Camels 1	Yale University Bulldogs	72%
1	12	University of Vermont Catamounts	Connecticut College Camels 2	76%
1	13	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	36%	upset
1	14	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	66%
1	15	Yale University Bulldogs	Boston University Terriers	35%	upset
1	16	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	82%
1	17	Connecticut College Camels 1	Connecticut College Camels 2	97%
1	18	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers	47%	upset
1	19	Tufts University Jumbos	Yale University Bulldogs	56%
1	20	Roger Williams University Hawks	Connecticut College Camels 2	96%
1	21	Boston University Terriers	University of Vermont Catamounts	80%
1	22	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Connecticut College Camels 1	21%	upset
1	23	University of Rhode Island Rams	Yale University Bulldogs	56%
1	24	Tufts University Jumbos	Connecticut College Camels 2	95%
1	25	Roger Williams University Hawks	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	71%
1	26	Boston University Terriers	Connecticut College Camels 1	15%	upset
1	27	University of Rhode Island Rams	University of Vermont Catamounts	78%
1	28	Yale University Bulldogs	Connecticut College Camels 2	83%
1	29	Connecticut College Camels 1	Tufts University Jumbos	82%
1	30	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Boston University Terriers	41%	upset
1	31	Roger Williams University Hawks	Yale University Bulldogs	71%
1	32	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	77%
1	33	Connecticut College Camels 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	87%
1	34	Boston University Terriers	Connecticut College Camels 2	94%
1	35	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Vermont Catamounts	87%
1	36	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	45%	upset
2	37	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos	62%
2	38	Connecticut College Camels 1	University of Vermont Catamounts	96%
2	39	Connecticut College Camels 2	University of Rhode Island Rams	8%	upset
2	40	Yale University Bulldogs	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	68%
2	41	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	40%	upset
2	42	Boston University Terriers	Tufts University Jumbos	48%	upset
2	43	Connecticut College Camels 1	Roger Williams University Hawks	76%
2	44	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Connecticut College Camels 2	84%
2	45	Yale University Bulldogs	University of Vermont Catamounts	82%
2	46	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos	44%	upset
2	47	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	64%
2	48	Connecticut College Camels 1	Yale University Bulldogs	70%
2	49	University of Vermont Catamounts	Connecticut College Camels 2	73%
2	50	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	68%
2	51	Boston University Terriers	Yale University Bulldogs	65%
2	52	University of Vermont Catamounts	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	18%	upset
2	53	Connecticut College Camels 1	Connecticut College Camels 2	97%
2	54	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers	46%	upset
2	55	Tufts University Jumbos	Yale University Bulldogs	54%
2	56	Roger Williams University Hawks	Connecticut College Camels 2	96%
2	57	Boston University Terriers	University of Vermont Catamounts	80%
2	58	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Connecticut College Camels 1	23%	upset
2	59	University of Rhode Island Rams	Yale University Bulldogs	56%
2	60	Tufts University Jumbos	Connecticut College Camels 2	94%
2	61	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	29%	upset
2	62	Boston University Terriers	Connecticut College Camels 1	16%	upset
2	63	University of Rhode Island Rams	University of Vermont Catamounts	77%
2	64	Yale University Bulldogs	Connecticut College Camels 2	83%
2	65	Tufts University Jumbos	Connecticut College Camels 1	18%	upset
2	66	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Boston University Terriers	42%	upset
2	67	Roger Williams University Hawks	Yale University Bulldogs	72%
2	68	University of Vermont Catamounts	Tufts University Jumbos	24%	upset
2	69	Connecticut College Camels 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	86%
2	70	Boston University Terriers	Connecticut College Camels 2	93%
2	71	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Vermont Catamounts	88%
2	72	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	47%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	1	Rams	Jumbos	Terriers	Bulldogs	Catamounts	2
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels 1	6–10	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	L	✕
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	5–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L
Boston University Terriers	3–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–4	L	W	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–7	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels 2	6–10	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	1	Rams	Jumbos	Terriers	Bulldogs	Catamounts	2
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–2	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–2	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W
Connecticut College Camels 1	6–10	L	L	✕	W	L	L	L	L	✕
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	3–5	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L	W
Boston University Terriers	5–3	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–5	L	W	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–5	L	W	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels 2	6–10	L	L	✕	W	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
2	Camels 1	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
3	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Camels 2	3-5-6
4	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
5	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Terriers	2-4-5
6	Camels 1	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
7	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Camels 2	2-3-6
8	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
9	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
10	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
11	Camels 1	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
12	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Camels 2	4-5-6
13	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
14	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
15	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
16	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
17	Camels 1	1-2-3	def.	Camels 2	4-5-6
18	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
19	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
20	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels 2	3-5-6
21	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
22	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels 1	3-4-6
23	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
24	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels 2	3-4-6
25	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
26	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Camels 1	3-4-6
27	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels 2	3-5-6
29	Camels 1	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
30	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
31	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
32	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
33	Camels 1	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
34	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Camels 2	3-4-6
35	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
36	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
37	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
38	Camels 1	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
39	Camels 2	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
40	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
41	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
42	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
43	Camels 1	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
44	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels 2	3-4-6
45	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
46	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
47	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
48	Camels 1	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
49	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Camels 2	3-4-5
50	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
51	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
52	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
53	Camels 1	1-2-5	def.	Camels 2	3-4-6
54	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
55	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
56	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels 2	4-5-6
57	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
58	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels 1	3-4-6
59	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
60	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels 2	3-4-6
61	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
62	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Camels 1	4-5-6
63	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Camels 2	3-4-5
65	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels 1	3-4-6
66	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
67	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
68	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
69	Camels 1	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
70	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Camels 2	3-4-6
71	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
72	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	John Walton '22 Mathieu Dale '25 Riley Read '22	Jaqueline Frode '22 Annika Irene '23 Carly Kiss '25
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christopher Lukens '23 Ellie Maus '22 Thibault Antonietti '24	Timmy Gee '25 Meghan Gonzalez '23 Hattie Slayton '23
Connecticut College	Camels 1	Cj Mckenna '23 Thomas Whittemore '23 Walter Henry '23 William Bedford '23	Cecilia Bohan '24 Alexandra Tillinghast '23 Eloise (Ellie) Pieper '23 Jean-Michel Bus '22
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Aidan Naughton '22 Joshua Bartoszuk '25 Parker Colantuono '22	Kevin Stamp '22 Sadie Thomas '25 Clare Laroche '23
Tufts University	Jumbos	Bryan Trammell '23 Connor Sheridan '22 Patrick Mulcahy '23 Trevor Davis '24	Cali Salinas '23 Harper Mckerrow '23 Henry Tindall '25
Boston University	Terriers	Micky Munns '23 Noah Robitshek '25 Tyler Mowry '23	Matthew Hamelsky '23 Catherine Shakin '23 Carolyn Kravets '25
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christophe Chaumont '23 Mateo Farina '25 Nathan Sih '25 Nicholas Davies '24 Sam Tobin '23	Alexandra Contomichalos '22 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Sydney Zoehrer '24 Allison Rice '23 Teddy Horangic '25
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Calvin Lamosse '25 Christian Cushman '25 Connell Phillipps '23 Nicholas Salvesen '22 Ryan Hamilton '23	Mallory Stafford '23 Caroline James '24 Maura Duval '24
Connecticut College	Camels 2	Andrew Powers '24 Charles Bresnahan '24 Fritz Baldauf '24 Harris Padegs '23 Ryan Mckinney '24	Ashley Breyer '24 Ruth Reischmann '23 Abigail Lenox '23 Margaret Benson '23 Clifton Carragher '25 Renee Smith '24

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 44% · Pressure 1033.2 hPa

Temperature

36°F

↑ 40°F ↓ 25°F

Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.9 kn

avg · max 7.6 kn

Gusts to 18.3 kn

From SSW (206°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1033.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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