University of Vermont '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 78.19 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.102 rating points from 137 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.37 (fleet 1.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–83 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 17–47 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 4–28 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (106 matches) the record is 23–83 against 24.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.8). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | The 40th Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Team Races | skipper | 2.03 | 3.41 | 3–11 | 1.0 | +1.38 | 2.2 | 7% |
| 2023-03-25 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.02 | 1.40 | 4–16 | 5.9 | −0.62 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.91 | 2.88 | 8–6 | 5.7 | +0.98 | 1.6 | 12% |
| 2023-03-11 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 1.96 | 1.55 | 2–14 | 2.7 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2022-04-02 | The 39th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.02 | -0.98 | 0–14 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| 2022-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.13 | 2.37 | 1–3 | 0.9 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2022-03-05 | Hap Moore | skipper | 2.05 | 1.78 | 3–11 | 3.5 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 1.82 | 0.45 | 2–8 | 4.1 | −1.38 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Callagy Ross Alumni Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | 0.53 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 12% | — |
| The 40th Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Team Races | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 14.4 | 2.22 |
| Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.6 | 2.42 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 1.95 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.9 | 1.94 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 14.4 | 1.39 |
| 31st Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 2.21 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.1 | 1.57 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Hap Moore | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 17 | 14.3 | 1.81 |
| The 39th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.1 | 3.01 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.8 | 3.05 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.0 | 2.74 |
| Coed ACC's Round 1B | Skipper | B | 11 | 14.4 | 2.12 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.0 | 2.22 |
| The 80th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.3 | 2.20 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.8 | 2.37 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sacred Heart Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 1.14 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | 2.34 |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.7 | 2.39 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.1 | 2.38 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 14.0 | 2.01 |
| Fairfield Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.8 | 3.38 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ryan Hamilton |  Marblehead High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
