Navigate

The 40th Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Team Races

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 13–1
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 10–4
3 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 9–5
4 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 7–7
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5–9
6 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 5–9
7 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4–10
8 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 20,646 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 56 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.542 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.33 ± 0.24: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Yale University
Bulldogs		111.39
school +0.26		Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.67
Stephan Baker / Meredith Ryan 3.46 11–1
Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 3.93 8–0
Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 4.04 5–1
Stephan Baker / Benjamin Markert 3.55 2–0		84%13–1 (93%)+1.2
2Brown University
Bears		310.69
school +0.23		Guthrie Braun / Lily Shore 3.23
Liam O'Keefe / Nora Ong 3.63
Connor Nelson / Izzy Cox 3.58		71%10–4 (71%)+0.1
3Dartmouth College
Big Green		211.02
school +0.39		Robert Bragg / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.65 9–3
Maddie Hawkins / Aisling Sullivan 3.64 9–3
William Michels / Reese Bragg 3.37 9–3
Robert Bragg / Drew Clutterbuck 3.67 0–2
Maddie Hawkins / Christopher Long 3.46 0–2
William Michels / Madeleine Hughes 3.31 0–2		77%9–5 (64%)−1.8
4Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		59.50
school +0.12		Christopher Lukens / Timmy Gee 3.12
Thomas Hall / Hattie Slayton 3.27
Thibault Antonietti / Meghan Gonzalez 2.98		47%7–7 (50%)+0.4
5Tufts University
Jumbos		68.91
school +0.12		Patrick Mulcahy / Caroline Kelly 2.65
Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.06 3–7
Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 3.08 2–6
Trevor Davis / Henry Tindall 3.03 2–2
Ben Mueller / William Eykyn 3.10 2–2
John Eastman / William Eykyn 2.98 1–1		36%5–9 (36%)+0.0
6University of Miami
Hurricanes		78.37Atlee Kohl / Natalie Elder 3.05
Richard Mccann / Sandra Heilshorn 2.51
Aidan Dennis / Dominic Canonico 2.87 5–7
Zachary Ward / Magnus Weissenberger 2.07 0–2		27%5–9 (36%)+1.3
7Connecticut College
Camels		49.54
school +0.26		Cj Mckenna / Liam Gronda 3.18 3–5
Thomas Whittemore / Alejandro Amezcua 3.14 3–5
Walter Henry / Alexandra Tillinghast 2.95 3–5
Cj Mckenna / Alexandra Tillinghast 3.17 1–5
Thomas Whittemore / Cecilia Bohan 3.22 1–5
Walter Henry / Clifton Carragher 2.88 1–5		50%4–10 (29%)−3.0
8University of Vermont
Catamounts		86.97
school −0.14		Connell Phillipps / Ryan Potter 2.77
Ryan Hamilton / Will Broseman 2.03
Christian Cushman / Alice Thompson 2.29		7%3–11 (21%)+2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
8University of Vermont6.978.353–111.0+1.382.27%
1Yale University11.3912.3513–111.8+0.960.732%
6University of Miami8.379.005–93.7+0.630.627%
4Bowdoin College9.509.657–76.6+0.150.054%
2Brown University10.6910.7210–49.9+0.030.063%
5Tufts University8.918.915–95.0+0.000.062%
3Dartmouth College11.0210.179–510.8−0.861.295%
7Connecticut College9.548.084–107.0−1.463.199%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Aidan DennisUniversity of Miami2.873.755–73.5+0.871.020%
Atlee KohlUniversity of Miami3.053.685–93.7+0.630.627%
Richard MccannUniversity of Miami2.513.145–93.7+0.630.627%
Thibault AntoniettiBowdoin College2.983.137–76.6+0.150.054%
Ben MuellerTufts University3.083.184–83.8+0.100.058%
Patrick MulcahyTufts University2.652.655–95.0+0.000.062%
Thomas WhittemoreConnecticut College3.141.684–107.0−1.463.199%
Walter HenryConnecticut College2.951.494–107.0−1.463.199%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Dartmouth CollegeUniversity of Miami93%
12Tufts UniversityConnecticut College35%upset
13Brown UniversityUniversity of Vermont98%
14Yale UniversityBowdoin College87%
15Dartmouth CollegeConnecticut College82%
16University of MiamiBrown University10%upset
17Tufts UniversityYale University7%upset
18Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Vermont93%
19Brown UniversityConnecticut College76%
110Yale UniversityDartmouth College62%
111University of MiamiUniversity of Vermont82%
112Bowdoin CollegeTufts University64%
113Yale UniversityBrown University70%
114University of VermontConnecticut College7%upset
115Dartmouth CollegeTufts University89%
116Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of Miami74%
117Yale UniversityUniversity of Vermont99%
118Brown UniversityTufts University85%
119Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Miami87%
120Dartmouth CollegeBowdoin College83%
121Tufts UniversityUniversity of Vermont87%
122Yale UniversityUniversity of Miami95%
123Brown UniversityDartmouth College41%upset
124Bowdoin CollegeConnecticut College49%upset
125University of MiamiTufts University42%upset
126Dartmouth CollegeUniversity of Vermont98%
127Yale UniversityConnecticut College86%
128Brown UniversityBowdoin College77%
229Dartmouth CollegeUniversity of Miami93%
230Connecticut CollegeTufts University65%
231Brown UniversityUniversity of Vermont98%
232Yale UniversityBowdoin College87%
233Tufts UniversityUniversity of Miami58%
234Dartmouth CollegeUniversity of Vermont98%
235Bowdoin CollegeConnecticut College49%upset
236Yale UniversityBrown University70%
237University of VermontTufts University13%upset
238University of MiamiBowdoin College27%upset
239Brown UniversityDartmouth College41%upset
240Yale UniversityConnecticut College86%
241University of VermontBowdoin College7%upset
242Brown UniversityTufts University85%
243Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Miami86%
244Yale UniversityDartmouth College62%
245Bowdoin CollegeBrown University23%upset
246Connecticut CollegeUniversity of Vermont93%
247Dartmouth CollegeTufts University89%
248Yale UniversityUniversity of Miami94%
249Brown UniversityConnecticut College76%
250Bowdoin CollegeDartmouth College18%upset
251University of MiamiUniversity of Vermont82%
252Yale UniversityTufts University93%
253Dartmouth CollegeConnecticut College82%
254Brown UniversityUniversity of Miami90%
255Tufts UniversityBowdoin College36%upset
256Yale UniversityUniversity of Vermont99%

Round 1

TeamRec.BulldogsBearsGreenBearsJumbosHurricanesCamelsCatamounts
Yale University Bulldogs6–1✕WWWLWWW
Brown University Bears5–2L✕WWWLWW
Dartmouth College Big Green5–2LL✕WWWWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears4–3LLL✕WWWW
Tufts University Jumbos3–4WLLL✕LWW
University of Miami Hurricanes3–4LWLLW✕LW
Connecticut College Camels1–6LLLLLW✕L
University of Vermont Catamounts1–6LLLLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BulldogsBearsGreenBearsJumbosHurricanesCamelsCatamounts
Yale University Bulldogs7–0✕WWWWWWW
Brown University Bears5–2L✕WLWWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green4–3LL✕LWWWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears3–4LWW✕LLWL
Tufts University Jumbos2–5LLLW✕WLL
University of Miami Hurricanes2–5LLLWL✕LW
Connecticut College Camels3–4LLLLWW✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts2–5LLLWWLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
2 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
3 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
4 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-5-6
5 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
6 University of Miami Hurricanes 2-3-5 def. Brown University Bears 1-4-6
7 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
8 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
9 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-5-6
10 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-5-6
11 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
12 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
13 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
14 University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
15 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
16 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
17 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
18 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-5-6
19 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
20 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
21 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
22 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
23 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-4-5
24 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
25 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-6
26 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
27 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
28 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
29 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-3-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 2-5-6
30 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
31 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
32 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
33 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
34 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
35 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Connecticut College Camels 4-5-6
36 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
37 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-5-6
38 University of Miami Hurricanes 2-3-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-4-6
39 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
40 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
41 University of Vermont Catamounts 1-3-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-4-5
42 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
43 Connecticut College Camels 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
44 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 4-5-6
45 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-3-6 def. Brown University Bears 2-4-5
46 Connecticut College Camels 1-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-5-6
47 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
48 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
49 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Connecticut College Camels 3-4-5
50 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
51 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
52 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
53 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-4 def. Connecticut College Camels 1-5-6
54 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 1-5-6
55 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-5-6
56 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6

Conditions — 04/01/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 92%  ·  Pressure 996.9 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 14.6 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From SSW (204°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine2.2 hrs Humidity92% Pressure996.9 hPa Rain0.36 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →