Tufts University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.27 (fleet 3.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 93–83 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 7 | 28–49 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 16–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 42–14 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 4–11 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 15 graded regattas (176 matches) the record is 93–83 against 91.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-27 | College Sailing Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.67 | 2.30 | 3–8 | 3.6 | −0.37 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2023-04-08 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle | skipper | 2.62 | 3.22 | 1–5 | 0.6 | +0.60 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 2023-04-01 | The 40th Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Team Races | skipper | 2.65 | 2.65 | 5–9 | 5.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2023-03-25 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 2.30 | 6–9 | 7.1 | −0.37 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2023-03-18 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 2.73 | 7–9 | 6.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2023-03-11 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 2.42 | 4–5 | 4.3 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2023-03-05 | Sharpe Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2–4 | 2.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2022-10-23 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.72 | 5.72 | 4–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 19% |
| 2022-10-22 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.46 | 4.36 | 12–3 | 6.7 | +1.90 | 6.9 | <1% |
| 2022-04-02 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 1.58 | 15–6 | 18.1 | −1.01 | 2.4 | 98% |
| 2022-03-26 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.59 | 3.53 | 15–1 | 14.0 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 35% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.65 | 3.25 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.60 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2022-03-05 | Hap Moore | skipper | 2.56 | 2.09 | 6–6 | 7.2 | −0.47 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2021-10-23 | Norman G. Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.42 | 1.89 | 4–11 | 5.5 | −0.53 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2021-05-14 | Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | skipper | 2.28 | 2.45 | 3–6 | 2.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern NE Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| College Sailing Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.7 | 3.29 |
| NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| The 40th Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Team Races | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A, B | 6 | 7.5 | 4.13 |
| Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.0 | 3.44 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| NEISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 4.0 | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 9.7 | 3.15 |
| Harman Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 4 | 100% | — |
| Open Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championships Round 1B | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.2 | 2.74 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 2.46 |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| Hap Moore | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 17 | 13.3 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman G. Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 2.96 |
| Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.2 | 2.90 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.3 | 4.91 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 11 | 1.6 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 3.21 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Dinghy Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.0 | 2.19 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.3 | 4.10 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 9 | 10.1 | 2.19 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.2 | 3.78 |
| NEISA Match Race Championship, Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Harvard Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 2.41 |
| Harman Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 3.5 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.3 | 2.39 |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| 2020 Rose Bowl - College | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.0 | 1.29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
